RIL may become India's first $100 bn mkt cap firm

Reliance Industries, India's most valued firm, may become the first in the country to achieve a market capitalisation of $100 billion, international brokerage and equity research major Morgan Stanley today.

Morgan Stanley's India-based analysts said in a research note sent to the firm's institutional clients that they were raising the consolidated earnings forecasts for RIL in the current and next fiscals. They also revised upward their one-year price target for RIL shares, while projecting a 35 per cent surge from the current levels in its "base case" scenario.

Morgan Stanley further said in "bull case" scenario, the shares could rise by about 37 per cent, which when translated into market capitalisation would amount to over $100 billion.

RIL's market cap currently stands at about $64 billion, the highest for any listed entity in the country. However, this pales in comparison to the US, where the most valued listed entity ExxonMobil, which is also into the energy business, has a market value of close to $485 billion.

None of the Indian companies have ever achieved this mark, even though at least 30 companies in the US have a market capitalisation of more than $100 billion. These include tobacco giant Altria Group, insurance major AIG, telecom firm AT&T, Coca-Cola, General Electric, Google, Hewlett Packard, IBM, Intel, JP Morgan, Johnson and Johnson, Merck, Microsoft, Procter and Gamble, Verizon Communications and Wal-Mart.

The combined market cap of all the 30 constituents of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the benchmark index of the US market, is more than four trillion dollars, which is over four times the entire market capitalisation of all the listed entities here in India.

Bonus is balm for bruised Unitech

Unitech surged 4.11% to Rs 558.85 today after its shareholders approved a 1:1 bonus.

The company made the announcement during market hours today, 31 July 2007.

On BSE, 14.68 lakh shares of the scrip were traded. The stock had an average daily volume of 12.45 lakh shares on BSE in the past one quarter.

Unitech touched a high of Rs 566 and a low of Rs 529.50 during the day. It had hit a 52-week high of Rs 623.60 on 29 May 2007 and a 52-week low of Rs 187 on 1 September 2006.

The stock had tumbled 4% to Rs 536.80 yesterday, 30 July 2007, despite the company having reported a 370.5% rise in net profit in Q1 June 2007 during market hours yesterday, 30 July 2007.

The scrip of India's third largest construction firm in terms of sales had gained 6.39% in the one month to 30 July 2007 versus the Sensex's 4.17% return. It had added 27.37% in the past three months against the Sensex's 10.01% appreciation.

The company’s equity capital is Rs 162.34 crore, with 81.17 crore outstanding shares of a face value of Rs 2 each.

At the current price of Rs 558.85 the scrip trades at a PE multiple of 32.60, based on year ended March 2007 EPS of Rs 17.14.

Unitech’s net profit rose 370.5% to Rs 347.83 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Sales moved up 185.2% to Rs 763.66 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

Unitech is into real estate development business. It projects include residential complexes, golf course, integrated townships, amusement parks, commercial offices, and IT parks.

Sensex gains 290pts

The Sensex opened with a positive gap of 98 points at 15,359 on the back of positive global cues. The index rallied nearly 200 points ahead of the announcement of the credit policy review.

A 50bps hike in cash reserve ratio (CRR) saw the index tumble into negative zone and hit a low of 15,225. The index, however, bounced back soon as the market acknowledged the fact that all key banking rates were left unchanged in the policy review.

Aggressive buying towards the end saw the index zoom to a high of 15,569 - up 344 points from the day's low.

The Sensex finally ended with a smart gain of 290 points at 15,551.

The BSE Capital Goods index soared nearly 5% to 13,322. The Metal and Realty indices surged over 2% each to 11,631 and 7854, respectively.

The market breadth was positive - out of 2,717 stocks traded, 1,706 advanced, 937 declined and 74 were unchanged today.

INDEX MOVERS....

Larsen & Toubro zoomed 6.5% to Rs 2,606. HDFC soared 5.7% to Rs 2,017, and BHEL surged 5.3% to Rs 1,732.

ACC rallied 3.7% to Rs 1,060. Ranbaxy, HDFC Bank and Reliance Communications gained around 3.5% each at Rs 390, Rs 1,199 and Rs 559, respectively.

Bajaj Auto and SBI advanced around 3% each to Rs 2,360 and Rs 1,624, respectively.

Reliance and Hindalco moved up around 2.5% each to Rs 1,892 and Rs 170, respectively.

ITC rallied 2% to Rs 171. TCS, Ambuja Cements and Reliance Energy gained 1.7% each at Rs 1,158, Rs 131 and Rs 793, respectively.

NTPC surged 1.5% to Rs 166. Bharti Airtel and Tata Steel were up over 1% each to Rs 903 and Rs 655, respectively.

....AND THE LAGGARDS

Mahindra & Mahindra plunged over 3% to Rs 729. Hindustan Unilever and Tata Motors slipped over 1% each to Rs 206 and Rs 699, respectively.

MOST ACTIVE COUNTERS:

SBI topped the value chart with a turnover of Rs 277.35 crore followed by Larsen & Toubro (Rs 168.40 crore), Reliance (Rs 138.85 crore), Reliance Energy (Rs 125.40 crore) and HDIL (Rs 121 crore).

Reliance Natural Resources led the volume chart with trades of around 1.31 crore shares followed by IFCI (84 lakh), Bellary Steel (65.10 lakh), IKF Technologies (61 lakh) and Harig Cranks (59.70 lakh).

News at a glance...

Forex, margin gains boost Tata Steel Q1 net.

Tata Steel ups Corus buyout share to $7.4 bn.

Jet Air lands in the black.

Spice Jet net at Rs 18 crore.

Nalco net dips 28% to Rs 446.6 cr.

Sun TV net jumps 120%.

BHEL bottom line up 22%.

Telecom buoys Birla Nuvo profit.

NTPC net rises 52%.

Kalpataru Power PAT up 28%.

Rising Re fuels IOC net 11%.

Cairn cuts net loss to Rs 7.56 cr.

RPG group to enter management education.

Better sales prune HPCL loss to Rs 87 crore.

Asian Paints to set up emulsion unit in Rohtak.

Asian Paints net up 36% to Rs 82 cr.

GE Shipping net jumps 75 per cent.

Unitech net profit surges on new norms, sales push.

Ranbaxy enters authorised generics space.

Slack tractor sales, input costs hit M&M.

Bharati Shipyard net rises 83%.

India Cements net up 63%.

Parsvanath net zooms 131%.

NIIT net profit up 17 per cent.

Northgate Tech net jumps 61.5%.

Megasoft net up 17% to Rs 9.45 crore.

Lanco Global net jumps 62-fold.

Geodesic net up 119%.

i-flex solutions net jumps 64%.

Torrent eyes stake in Dahej SEZ.

After Europe, KPR Mill eyes US mkt.

GHCL to enter textile retail segment abroad.

APSFC net up 10.7%.

UB Holdings hits 52-week high

UB Holdings has touched a 52-week high of Rs 842.80.

At 12:59 pm, the share was quoting at Rs 842.80, up Rs 76.60, or 10%. There were pending buy orders of 4,144 shares, with no sellers available.

Yesterday the share closed up 10% or Rs 69.65 at Rs 766.20.

Results to be announced today...

Reliance Comm, Unitech, Tata Motors, Hindalco, MICO, Bharat Elec, VSNL, Nestle, Financial Tech.

House views - Reliance Industries

Buy Reliance Industries; target of Rs 2005: Citigroup.

Buy Reliance Industries; target of Rs 2007: UBS.

I-Sec maintains buy on Reliance Industries.

SSKI neutral on Reliance Industries.

RBI Credit Policy impact

Reserve Bank has hiked, by half a per cent, the amount of depositors money commercial banks need to park with the central bank to curb money supply but left other benchmark interest rates unchanged.

With inflation hovering within its medium-term target of 4-4.5 per cent, the central bank pressed the pause button on any hike in key rates, barring the hike in Cash Reserve Ratio by 0.5 per cent to 7 per cent to suck out excess liquidity.

Credit Policy watch: RBI hikes CRR by 50 bps to 7%

The Reserve Bank of India has announced its Credit Policy today. The RBI has hiked CRR by 50 bps to 7% from 6.5%. RBI has kept repo, reverse repo and bank rates unchanged. There hasn't been much change in the monetary policy stance.

RBI will remove the Rs 3,000 crore reserve cap from August 6. The FY08 GDP forecast has been retained at 8.5%. RBI will use CRR, OMO, LAF, MSS as needed to manage liquidity. The credit policy reiterates 4-4.5% as the medium term inflation target. Keeping inflation within 5% in FY08 assumes priority according to the policy.

Domestic outlook will dominate RBI policy in the period ahead. The risk to inflation expectation is up due to the high oil prices. Global inflationary pressures are stronger than before. The monetary stance spelt out in April has been retained.

Global inflationary pressure has anchored inflation expectation. While, the domestic outlook continues to be favourable, fiscal deficit is evolving as per the Budget. According to the policy, prospects for FY08 GDP growth appear positive.

US stocks rebound; ADRs shine

US stocks rebounded on July 30th after a two-day fall. The Dow Jones industrial average surged 93 points to 13,358. The Nasdaq moved up 21 points to 2583.

Indian ADRs ended in the green. ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank soared over 4% each to $46.02 and $87.55, respectively. MTNL surged 3.7% to $7.50. Satyam and Tata Motors rallied nearly 3% each to $26.91 and $17.75, respectively. Sterlite, Wipro, Patni Computers and VSNL also ended with smart gains.

Brokers bullish on HUL, JK Cements, Thermax, L&T

Citigroup has put a buy rating on Hindustan Unilever; with a target price of Rs. 254

CLSA has kept underperform rating on TCS; with a target price of Rs 1,250

DSP Merrill Lynch has kept neutral rating on Tata Steel

DSP Merrill Lynch has kept sell rating on Ranbaxy

Citigroup has kept sell rating on Ranbaxy; with a target price of Rs 363

Citigroup has kept hold rating on Dabur India; with a target price of Rs 167

Citigroup has kept hold rating on Kotak Mahindra Bank; it upped its target to Rs 235

Angel Broking has kept hold rating on Nalco; with a target price of Rs 205

Sharekhan has put buy rating on JK Cements; with a target price of Rs 205

Edelweiss Capital has kept value buy rating on Thermax

Anand Rathi Securities has kept buy rating on South Indian Bank; with a target price of Rs 95

Motilal Oswal Securities has kept buy rating on L&T; with a target price of Rs 1,769

Sensex ends up 26pts; HUL, SBI rally

The Sensex opened today with a positive gap of 43 points at 15,278, but slipped in early trades due to nervousness following the steep fall on Friday, July 27th.

The index tumbled to a low of 15,135 - down 143 points from the day's open.

Aggressive buying in select stocks like Hindustan Unilever, SBI and cement shares helped the index rebound into positive zone. The buying momentum was so strong in mid-noon trades that the index rallied to a high of 15,452 - up 317 points from the day's low.

Intra-day profit-taking saw the Sensex pare gains, and finally end with a marginal gain of 26 points at 15,261.

The BSE Bankex rallied 1.7% to 8055, and the FMCG index was up nearly 1% at 1945. The Realty index dropped 2% to 7670, and the Metal index shed 1% at 11,381.

The market breadth was slightly positive - out of 2,660 stocks traded, 1,342 advanced, 1,258 declined and 60 were unchanged today.

INDEX MOVERS....

Hindustan Unilever soared 6.3% to Rs 209 after the company announced a Rs 630 crore buy back plan at Rs 230 per share.

SBI zoomed over 5% to Rs 1,579 on strong Q1 numbers.

Ambuja Cements surged over 3% to Rs 129. Grasim advanced 3% to Rs 2,947, and ACC added 2% to Rs 1,023.

Reliance Energy and Maruti rallied over 2% each to Rs 780 and Rs 847, respectively. Satyam moved up over 1% to Rs 479, and NTPC also gained over 1% at Rs 163.

Tata Motors and ICICI Bank were up 1% each at Rs 707 and Rs 924, respectively.

....AND THE LAGGARDS

Hindalco plunged over 4% to Rs 166. Mahindra & Mahindra tumbled 3% to Rs 753.

ITC shed 2.6% to Rs 167. TCS and Bajaj Auto slipped 1.3% each to Rs 1,138 and Rs 2,293, respectively.

Dr.Reddy's, Reliance, BHEL and Infosys were down 1% each at Rs 636, Rs 1,848, Rs 1,644 and Rs 1,988, respectively.

VALUE & VOLUME TOPPERS:

Reliance Industries topped the value chart with a turnover of Rs 217 crore followed by Reliance Energy (Rs 200 crore), HDIL (Rs 182.60 crore), SBI (Rs 178.20 crore) and Reliance Capital (Rs 153 crore).

Reliance Natural Resources led the volume chart with trades of around 1.80 crore shares followed by Harig Cranks (1.15 crore), IKF Technologies (1.05 crore), IFCI (97.50 lakh) and Suryachakra Power (86.25 lakh).

Reliance Energy's subsidiary bags Sasan mega power project

The government today awarded the 4,000 MW Sasan ultra mega power project to Anil Ambani's Reliance Energy as the company's subsidiary (Reliance Power Ltd.) had submitted the lowest bid of Rs 1.19616 per kilo watt hour.

"The revised bid of Reliance Power Ltd quoting levelised tariff of Rs 1.19616 per kilo watt hour was the lowest of the three bids...accordingly, the eGoM has advised that the procurer should consider taking immediate action to issue the letter of intent to the lowest bidder," Power Minister Sushilkumar Shinde told reporters in New Delhi.

Reliance Power Ltd (RPL) is a subsidiary of Reliance Energy Ltd.

Shinde was heading the empowered Group of Ministers (eGoM) on ultra mega power projects which met for the fifth time to take a decision on the vexed issue.

"We are delighted to have won India's largest ultra mega power project through an international competitive bidding process," REL Chairman Anil Ambani said in a statement.

Initially, Lanco had outbid REL with a tariff bid of Rs 1.196 per unit. The consortium later broke after Globeleq sold its stake to Lanco and Jindal Steel and Power Ltd. The bid was declared invalid after it was alleged that Lanco misrepresented facts during the bidding process.

Sasan Power Ltd, the special purpose vehicle set up by Power Finance Corporation for setting up the project, had asked three other bidders - RPL, NTPC and Jaiprakash Associates - to submit fresh bids. NTPC and Jaiprakash Associates, however, did not change the prices.

The eGoM directed the matter to be put before the board of Sasan Power Ltd for "expeditious action."

SBI Q1 net soars 79 per cent

The country's largest lender State Bank India (SBI) has announced a 78.55 per cent jump in net profit at Rs 1,425.81 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, compared to Rs 798.57 crore for the corresponding period last year.

The total income has risen by 27.83 per cent at Rs 12,229.09 crore for the June quarter compared to that of Rs 9,566.79 crore in the year ago period, the state-run bank said in a communique to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

The group posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,861.66 crore after minority interest for the first quarter as against Rs 963.01 crore for the same period last fiscal.

The consolidated turnover of the group stood at Rs 18,882.68 crore for the April-June quarter compared to that of Rs 14,118.97 crore for the corresponding period a year ago.

Mahindra Q2 net down 6.4%, shares fall

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., top utility vehicle and tractor maker, today reported a surprising 6.4 percent fall in quarterly net profit, sending its shares down by nearly 3 percent during the day's trade.

Indian auto makers have been battling higher prices of raw-materials and firm interest rates that have slowed demand, particularly for commercial vehicles.

Mahindra said a firmer rupee also hit export earnings.

Mahindra, which makes the Logan sedan in a joint venture with France's Renault, said net profit fell to 1.91 billion rupees in the fiscal first quarter to end-June from 2.04 billion a year ago.

Net sales rose to 26.13 billion rupees from 22.36 billion.

That compared with a Reuters poll forecast of a net profit of 2.09 billion rupees on sales of 25.44 billion rupees.

Its operating margin, a key gauge of profitability, fell to 10.6 percent from 11.3 percent a year earlier.

Mahindra's full-year net profit is forecast to rise 4 percent to 10.49 billion rupees.

NTPC Q1 net up 53% at Rs 2,370cr

National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) today reported a 52.6% rise in net profit at Rs 2,369.90 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, 2007 when compared with Rs 1,552.80 crore in Q1FY07.

Total income (net of electricity duty) increased 19% to Rs 9,687.80 crore from Rs 8,139 crore in Q1FY07.

Jet Q1 net profit at Rs 31cr

Jet Airways India today reported a net profit of Rs 30.88 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, 2007 when compared with a net loss of Rs 44.98 crore in Q1FY07.

According to a release issued to the BSE today, total income increased to Rs 1,983.03 crore from Rs 1,655.19 crore in Q1FY07.

Tata Steel Q1 net up 28%

Tata Steel today reported a 28% increase in net profit at Rs 1,222.11 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, 2007 when compared with Rs 953.41 crore in Q1FY07.

According to a release issued to the BSE today, total income increased to Rs 4,343.70 crore from Rs 3,977.38 crore in Q1FY07.

Hindustan Unilever buyback at Rs 230/shr

Consumer goods major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) today announced that it would buyback equity shares at a price of Rs 230 per share and up to an aggregate amount of Rs 630 crore.

The price is at a premium of 17% over the closing price of the HUL scrip (Rs 196.45) as on 27th July 2007. HUL's average closing share price on BSE for the last six months is Rs 196.

According to a company statement, the total amount proposed for buyback is within 25% of the total paid-up capital and free reserves as per the audited balance sheet as on 31 December, 2006. HUL has Rs 2,723.48 crore as free reserves and paid-up capital. That means, the company could spend a maximum of Rs 680.86 crore on the buyback. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) guidelines say a company can buy back shares only up to 25% of its net worth.

The buy back will see HUL’s parent, Anglo-Dutch consumer goods giant Unilever, buying 27.31 million shares, thus increasing its stake in the company by 1.24%. Unilever currently holds 51.42% equity in HUL, while 17.50% of the company’s shares are owned by the general public.

“The buyback is proposed to effectively utilise the surplus cash, and make the balance sheet leaner and more efficient to improve returns,” the statement said. Post buyback, Unilever’s stake in HUL will be 52.66%.

The company proposes to buyback shares at a price not exceeding Rs 230.00 per share on the Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and National Stock Exchange through open market purchases from time to time.

As specified in the SEBI guidelines (buyback of securities) Regulation 1998, the promoters (Unilever) and the directors of the company shall not sell in the proposed buyback process."

HUL Q2 net up 30% on cost cuts, price hikes

Backed by selective price increases and cost cutting initiatives, India’s largest fast-moving consumer goods company Hindustan Unilever reported a net profit growth of 29.55% to Rs 493 crore for the second quarter ended June 2007 (Q2FY07), compared to Rs 380.59 crore in the corresponding quarter last financial year (Q2FY06).

The performance was important against a backdrop of the company reporting a decline in profits in the previous two sequential quarters, said analysts. "Things are looking better for them," said one.

“We have sustained our strong growth momentum across home and personal care and food businesses. The corner stone of our strategy is to continuously strengthen our portfolio, and deliver consistent and profitable growth,” HUL Chairman Harish Manwani said. “The challenge of inflationary pressure continues and will be met through a combination of selective price increases and cost leadership across the extended supply chain,” he added.

The company also announced an interim dividend of 300% (Rs 3 a share of Re 1 each) for the year 2007. The dividend will be payable on August 22.

The company's net sales for the quarter were Rs 3,481 crore, a growth of 13%. The company added that its home & personal care business grew 11.1% as brands in the laundry and shampoo categories continued their good perform.

The skin care category was impacted by a planned reduction of stocks in the distribution pipeline, as the company prepared for the Fair & Lovely relaunch in July 2007. The company's oral care category growth was led by gel toothpaste brand Close Up.

The food business registered a sales growth of 25%, while the beverage business grew 21% with Taj, 3 Roses, Red Label and Taaza tea brands doing well. The company claimed that Bru Coffee continued its performance this quarter. The Knorr and Kissan brands were the key drivers of a 38% growth in the processed foods category while the ice cream business posted 24% growth.

The key innovations during the quarter were the launches of Knorr Chinese mixes, Bru Iced cappuccino and the Moo ice cream range.

On the mineral water business, the company said its national rollout is progressing well and now covers all southern states, Maharashtra and West Bengal.Judicious price increases together with buying efficiencies and aggressive cost saving initiatives helped sustain gross margins despite escalating costs.

Analysts said that price hikes added 5.6% to topline growth. The company admitted that its ad spends continued to be competitive and the lower expenditure for the quarter reflects the planned phasing of activities and the lower spend in television channels, as the deals in some networks were undergoing negotiations.

Reliance Industries announces Q1 results

Reliance Industries Ltd has announced the following Unaudited results for the quarter ended June 30, 2007: The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 32640 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2007 as compared to Rs 25470 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2006. Total Income (net of excise) has increased from Rs 245660 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2006 to Rs 281610 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2007.

Snapshot:-
It Q1 net profit was thus up 28% at Rs 3,264 crore versus Rs 2,547 crore last year. Its net sales was up 14.4%. Q1 Gross Turnover at Rs 29,493 Cr. Q1 EBITDA Margin at 18.5%. Net Profit Margin At 11.6%. Q1 Refining Margin At 11.2% Vs 9.8%. Q1 Petchem Margin At 13.7% Vs 11.1. Q1 GRM At $15.40 Vs $13 (QoQ). Other expenditure was down 20% due to lower sales tax.

Has completed 65%of RPL project. Makes 2 additional discoveries, 1 in KG basin, 1 in GS01. Submits development plans for NEC25 to DGH. Processed 8.01 mt of crude, up 7% (yoy). Petchem production up 15% to 3.65 mt. Gas production from PMT up 23%. Oil production for PMT up 25%.

Six new players, including five foreign majors, are entering the Indian mutual funds industry

Six new players are slated to enter the Indian mutual funds industry shortly and have already received preliminary approvals from SEBI.

Of these, five are foreign majors while one is a domestic firm.

The domestic mutual funds industry has registered a healthy growth in recent years and the industry's assets under management (AUM) crossed the Rs 4,00,000-crore mark as on June 30.

The foreign majors entering India are Axa of France, Mirae from Korea, Nomura and Shinsei from Japan and Dawny Day of the UK. The aspiring Indian entrant is brokerage house Edelweiss India.

Presently, there are 32 players in the Indian market and once these six aspirants obtain approval to start their business, the tally will go up to 38.

Once the five foreign asset management companies (AMCs) receive their regulatory clearances, the number of foreign companies operating in India will go up from the present 17 to 22.

Some of the foreign biggies operating in the country are Fidelity, Principal, Prudential, ABN Amro, Fidelity, ING Investment, BNP Paribas and Societe General. Most of them operate through joint ventures, either with public sector banks or companies in the private sector as their partners. Franklin Templeton Asset Management Company and AIG Global Asset Management are operating on their own in the country without any tie-up with local players.

Prolonged Asian Drag Unlikely

Asian stocks have declined broadly, but it would take a far bigger downturn in the U.S. economy than currently forecast from the housing market bust to derail Asia's generally strong economic outlook this year and in 2008, economists and analysts contend.

There is no denying that the short-term market pain was felt far and wide from the sell-off in New York. However, China's white-hot stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen were mixed and largely unaffected by the turmoil in global equity markets. In some Asian emerging markets such as South Korea, where stock prices have shot up more than 30% this year, investors may have been looking for a reason to sell.

Nor does it look like the U.S. is in immediate danger of falling into recession. On July 18, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in testimony to the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee disclosed that the Fed was slightly lowering its forecast for 2007 growth from what it said back in February. The "central tendency" is for the economy to expand 2.25% to 2.5% from the fourth quarter of 2006 through the fourth quarter of 2007, he said. That's down from a forecast of 2.5% to 3% in February. He said the Fed was lowering its 2008 forecast by a quarter-point, to 2.5% to 2.75%.

Standard & Poor's Chief Economist David Wyss expects gross domestic product growth of 2.5% for the second half of the year and 2.1% for the full year and improving into 2008. He also calculates that the housing decline has clipped about one percentage point of growth from the GDP for the U.S. this year and doesn't expect housing prices to bottom out until the spring of 2008.

Those numbers aren't spectacular. Yet they suggest the odds of a U.S.-led downturn of Asian economies are pretty low.

If the U.S. downturn exceeded expectations or the American economy fell into a recession, which is viewed as unlikely now, regional economies such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand and Taiwan would be most vulnerable given relatively weak consumer demand and heavy reliance on exports, according to Lehman Brothers.

China's sizzling economy, in contrast, likely would experience only minor pain. The mainland expanded at 11.9% in the second quarter, and most economists have upgraded their full-year 2007 forecasts to 11%-plus in recent weeks.

Wall Street drops for the second day in a row - Dow down 208 points. Indian ADRs in the red.

US stocks tumbled for the second day in a row on Friday July 27th, amid concerns over sub-prime lending in the housing sector. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 208 points to 13,265. The Nasdaq shed 37 points to 2562.

Indian ADRs ended in a sea of red. MTNL tumbled over 4% to $7.23, and Patni Computers slumped 3.5% to $23.05. Satyam, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Tata Motors and Dr.Reddy's were down 1-3% each.

Indian Stock markets crash - along with rest of Asia

Today saw the third biggest single day absolute fall for Sensex ever – following overnight weakness seen in both the Dow and the Nasdaq. The benchmark indices (BSE and NSE) joined their Asian peers losing strength across the board. The sell off was severe in the metals and realty space. The Nifty closed at 4,445 down 174 points (-3.78%), while the Sensex shut shop at 15,234 down 541 points (-3.43%). The close was its worst, this year, since the 416.02 points it lost on February 27, 2007.

Top Gainers:

ITC
Closing Price: Rs. 171.80 np
Percentage Change : + 3.12%
Ranbaxy Labs
Closing Price: Rs. 374.90 np
Percentage Change: +0.40%
Ambuja Cements
Closing Price: Rs. 125.05 np
Percentage Change: +0.28%

Top Losers:
Tata Steel
Closing Price: 651.60
Percentage Change: -7.37%
Reliance Comm
Closing Price: Rs. 537.35 np
Percentage Change: -5.65%
BHEL
Closing Price: Rs. 1660.40 np
Percentage Change: -5.40%
Hindalco
Closing Price: Rs. 173.30 np
Percentage Change: -5.27%

BSE Index at close of day's trade:
SENSEX : 15,234.57 (-541.74) -3.43%
MIDCAP : 6,598.32 (-192.18) -2.83%
SMLCAP : 7,926.45 (-219.41) -2.69 %

On Thursday, July 26th, signs of further weakness in the US housing market and worsening conditions for corporate buyouts saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average drop 2.26% and Nasdaq Composite Index fall 1.84%. As the weakness spread to Asian markets today, Japan's Nikkei average plunged 2.36%, Taiwan's Weighted Index fell 4.22%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 2.76% and Singapore's Strait Times closed down 2.43% at 3492. Back home, the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex ended 542 points or 3.43% lower at 15,234.57. The index dropped to an intra-day low of 15159.68. The National Stock Exchange's broader Nifty finished 175 points or 3.78% lower at 4445.20. The index made a low of 4424.25.

After the Sensex bled 541.74 points in today's bear attack, market watchers didn't quite know whether to rate this casualty the fourth biggest or the 64th in the 21-year history of the benchmark index.

Today's fall was the fourth biggest in terms of absolute value, but it did not figure even in the top 60 when considered in percentage terms, which some observers said should be given preference as it takes into account the current high level of the market.

A fall of this magnitude would have been a major crash a few years back, when even a 100 point dip was considered as a major concern. However, with the market trading over a level of 15,000 points in terms of the Sensex value, a fall of 100 or 200 points hardly makes a dent.

In terms of percentage, the Sensex today fell by 3.43 per cent points, which is the 64th biggest in its history.

While the fall of 826.38 points on May 18, 2006 is widely known as the biggest ever plunge for the Sensex, in percentage terms it was only sixth biggest at 6.76 per cent and occurred at a time when market was trading over 12,000 level.

The biggest ever fall so far in percentage terms occurred on May 17, 2004 when the Sensex slid 11.14 per cent. It was a fall of 564.71 points - the third biggest in absolute value terms - and took place when the Sensex was trading just above 5,000-points level.

The second biggest percentage fall was of 8.3 per cent on March 31, 1997, followed by falls of 7.2 per cent on October 5, 1998, 7.1 per cent on April 4, 2000 and 6.9 per cent on April 17, 1999 - all of which took place when the market was trading below 5,000-points level.