Monday, January 26, 2009

Trends...

- Barclays to write down 8 billion pounds

- Kharif production likely to be 5% lower: RBI

- Services sector growth in single-digit after 14 quarters

- ING to cut 7,000 jobs, expects FY08 loss at euro 1 bn

- Economy may witness moderation: RBI survey

News update...

- Airports may levy more charges as traffic slows
- HUL net dips 2.4 per cent on writedowns
- RPG earmarks Rs 20,000 crore for expansion
- Tata Steel set to see top-level changes
- Pirated copies of blockbusters flood Net
- No Satyam link to Maytas valuation, says E&Y
- Kirana stores back in fashion
- Tatas to slash 5k jobs at Corus, Jaguar Land Rover

Sunday, January 18, 2009

US Markets Shrug Off Bank Trouble

Continued pain in financial stocks hindered but failed to sink the broader US market Friday, marking a benign end to a week in which investors' longer-term outlook darkened.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off more than 100 points at its low but begain a steady climb in the early afternoon to end with a second straight day of gains, up 68.73 points, or 0.8%, at 8281.22, down 3.7% for the week. The average's gains were limited by declines in all its financial components

Bank of America tumbled 14% after reporting a $1.79 billion loss and receiving a $20 billion injection of government funds to help absorb losses from recent acquisition Merrill Lynch. The largest U.S. bank by assets was once seen as a strong hand in the financial crisis, and in mid-September was confident it could digest Merrill Lynch without government assistance.

Citigroup fell 8.6% after some morning gains after the government moved to back $400 billion of its assets. Citigroup also reported an $8.29 billion quarterly loss and said it would split into two business units, with one made up of brokerage and retail asset management, local consumer finance and a special asset pool.

Despite Friday's gains in the broader market, some traders are beginning to mistrust "bailout rallies" as signs of a durable trend higher. They are reluctant to buy into such moves until the stock market can rally on improving economic data rather than new government intervention.

News and observations

- Wkly Tech: Nifty may re-test 3,150

- Finacle develops software for rural banking ops

- Maytas projects won't be cancelled in haste: AP govt

- HDFC Bank to slash auto loans by 150 bps

- ESPN toes Trai guidelines on DTH pricing

- UTI AMC looks for strategic partner

- Tata Comm faces liquidity crisis

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Wkly Tech: Nifty slide to accelerate below 2,835

As the markets were attempting a break-out last week, it had to deal with major negative news in form of the Satyam fiasco. The Nifty, which made a promising start, faced resistance at 3,150.

From a high of 3,147, the Nifty slipped to a low of 2,810, down 337 points from the week’s high, on the back of deep cuts in Satyam, realty, metals, energy and telecom stocks. Interestingly, other IT stocks saw selective buying interest. The Nifty finally ended with a significant loss of 5.7 per cent (174 points) at 2,873.

From near an upside break-out, the index is now nearing a downside break point, with support at 2,835. A sustained stay below the 2,835 level is likely to trigger an accelerated down move.

While the short-term trend is still up, as the short-term (20-days) moving average at 2,985 continues to remain above the mid-term (50-days) moving average at 2,866. However, the unfolding Satyam story and corporate earnings are likely to dictate the terms going forward.

The probability of a downside break-out seems more likely than that of an upside break-out. Hence, one can assume that the index is likely to meet stiff resistance around the 3,135-3,150 levels in case of an upmove.

This week, the Nifty is likely to face resistance around the 3,000-3,040-3,080 levels, while support on the downside could be around 2,745-2,705-2,665.

In case of a downside break-out, the Nifty may test either its quarterly or yearly support levels as mentioned last week. As per fibonacci calculations, 2009 could see the index move in a broad range of 1,400 to 5,500. In between, support could be around the 2,050 level, while resistance around the 3,800 to 4,500 levels.

The quarterly chart, for the January to March period, indicates a range of 1,900 to 4,050. While the monthly chart, indicates resistance around 3,165-3,230-3,300, support on the downside is likely around 2,750-2,690-2,625.

The BSE Sensex, slipped 5.5 per cent (552 points) to 9,406. The index moved in a range of 1,219 points, from a high of 10,470, the index tumbled to a low of 9,251.

Among the index stocks — Satyam was the major loser, down 87 per cent at Rs 24. DLF, Reliance Communications and Jaiprakash Associates slumped 22-28 per cent. Reliance Infrastructure, Ranbaxy, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance, Bharti Airtel and SBI shed 9-18 per cent. On the other hand, Grasim soared over 12 per cent. Mahindra & Mahindra, TCS, Maruti, HDFC, Hindustan Unilever and Infosys gained 6-8 per cent.

The Sensex is likely to find considerable support around the 8,600-8,650 levels. This week, the index is likely to face resistance around 9,870-10,015-10,160, while support on the downside could be around 8,940-8,800-8,650.