Priti is critical...

On Saturday, January 19th, Priti - my beloved wife of 18 years - underwent a minor gynecological operation in a reputed hospital near our home. The operation was a success. Priti was scheduled to return home the next morning.

While Priti rested in her room with my mother-in-law sitting by her bedside, my two daughters and I went to a nearby restaurant for a celebratory lunch.

Our happiness was terribly premature. Destiny has not been kind to us. On Saturday evening, hours after the operation, Priti had to be rushed to the ICU in a critical state. Apparantly, a blood transfusion post-surgery caused a severe reaction in Priti's body - some of her organs (kidneys and lungs) had shut down and her blood had got badly infected - she had become a victim of blood poisoning (septicemia).

On Sunday morning, she was shifted to one of the best hospitals in Delhi (Apollo) - and she has been in the ICU there ever since, on life-support. She remains extremely critical. Please please pray for her.

She may have a surgery tomorrow morning.

Friends, relatives and office colleagues have overwhelmed us with their support. We have received innumerable pints of blood - more has been committed.

Priti's life hangs on a thread - my daughters Piya and Panvi and I need your prayers.

How BSE indices closed on January 15th...

How BSE indices closed on January 14th...

Mkts to stay volatile in run up to Budget say experts

Jyotivardhan Jaipuria, Head of Research, DSP Merrill Lynch, has said the run up in midcaps had been sharp. "We are seeing a correction now." He was speeaking on CNBC TV 18. India has done well as compared to other emerging markets, he added.

According to Jaipuria, the markets are likely to remain flat up to the Budget. "The trend is likely to remain volatile. We are looking for cues from the Budget."

Shankar Sharma of First Global has said that there is a 70-80% chance of a substantial downside from here. He was also speeaking on CNBC TV 18."The risk-reward ratio has turned unfavourable. There is not much action visible in largecaps. I am also not comfortable with the market internals."

He feels the correction in midcaps was due as the stocks had rallied a lot. "The markets are in shaky territory. I am not comfortable trading in the last few days," he added.

January 11th: Consumer Worries Damp US Stocks

Forget houses. Now Americans are cutting purchases of everything from burgers to diamond rings.

Investors unloaded shares feverishly as their focus shifted from the mortgage debacle's effect on financial firms to the harm the crisis is exacting on the economy's other cogs, especially consumer spending.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 246.79 points Friday, down 1.9%, at 12606.30, off 5% so far in 2008. American Express, a component of the average, tumbled by 10% after warning it will have to take a charge of $440 million before taxes in the fourth quarter to cover higher delinquencies and loan write-offs.

Other credit-card issuers watched their shares tumble in the wake of American Express's announcement, which raised anxiety that stretched consumers at all income levels may be having trouble paying their bills. Capital One Financial, which had warned earlier this week about a darkening outlook, declined 0.8%. Discover Financial shares dropped 3.7% and MasterCard fell 8.6%.

In another worrisome signal about affluent consumers, Tiffany & Co. slid 11.2% after trimming its fiscal-year profit outlook. Chief Executive Michael J. Kowalski said while sales growth was strong in key overseas markets, the jewelry retailer's U.S. sales softened during the recent holiday season.

Spending worries also ate into McDonald's shares, which fell 6.6% after an independent analyst's survey showed tepid growth in the chain's same-store sales in December. Analysts at Friedman Billings Ramsey issued the equivalent of a "hold" rating on McDonald's, citing "reservations" about its future results.

The Standard & Poor's 500 was down 1.4%, or 19.31 points, at 1401.02, led lower by consumer stocks. The broad measure's financial components gained nearly 1% as a group, although there were still a few big losers offering stark reminders of the lingering risks from bad mortgage bets on Wall Street. For the year, the S&P is down 4.6%.

The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2%, or 48.58 points, to 2439.94, down 8% on the year.
Bank of America meanwhile confirmed that it had reached a $4 billion all-stock deal to acquire Countrywide Financial. When news that such a deal was in the works broke yesterday, it caused a big stock-market jump on renewed optimism that other troubled lenders might garner new investments to buoy their financial outlook. But that hope quickly dissipated Friday morning. Countrywide's shares plunged 18.3% and Bank of America ended down 2%.

Not all financials skidded, however. Investment banks, including Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns, made solid gains. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were higher by over 5% each. Bond insurer MBIA jumped 17.6%, and rival Ambac Financial Group was stronger by 12%.

With a flurry of financial firms expected to report earnings next week, analysts are bracing for more bad news. According to Reuters Estimates, a New York firm that tracks Wall Street's earnings forecasts, the consensus expectation is that aggregate fourth-quarter earnings at S&P 500 companies will show a 9% decline over the year-ago period once all the latest reports are in hand, led by a 68% plunge in the financial sector's earnings.

How US markets closed on January 11th...

Major gainers and major losers on January 11th...

January 11th: Sensex ends up 245pts; ICICI Bank soars 6%

The Sensex opened with a positive gap of 121 points at 20,703. Follow-up selling saw the index slip into the negative zone to a low of 20,506 - down 197 points from the day's open.

The index, thereafter, gyrated between zones for most of the trading day. Aggressive buying towards the close saw the index surge to a high of 20,895 - up 389 points from the day's low.

The Sensex finally ended with a gain of 245 points at 20,827.

While the Small-cap index slipped 1.3% to 12,694, the Mid-cap index ended flat at 9,438.

The NSE Nifty recovered from a low of 6,113, and touched a high of 6,224, before finishing with a gain of 43 points at 6,200.

The market breadth was fairly negative - out of 2,864 stocks traded, 2,091 declined, 739 advanced and 34 were unchanged today.

INDEX MOVERS...

ICICI Bank zoomed over 6% to Rs 1,440. DLF soared 4.7% to Rs 1,196.

Reliance rallied 3.3% to Rs 3,128. HDFC Bank and NTPC surged around 2.5% each to Rs 1,762 and Rs 272, respectively.

Tata Motors advanced 1.8% to Rs 762, and TCS added 1.5% to Rs 989.

ITC gained 1.3% at Rs 223. SBI, ONGC and Cipla were up over 1% each at Rs 2,437, Rs 1,307 and Rs 204, respectively.

...AND THE SHAKERS

ACC plunged 4.3% to Rs 898. Mahindra & Mahindra tumbled 3.5% to Rs 775.

Satyam and HDFC slipped 2.2% each to Rs 411 and Rs 3,061, respectively.

Ambuja Cements and Hindustan Unilever shed 2% each at Rs 139 and Rs 224, respectively.

Infosys declined 1.4% to Rs 1,580, and Maruti was down 1% at Rs 899.

VALUE & VOLUME TOPPERS

Reliance Natural Resources topped the value chart with a turnover of Rs 561 crore followed by Aries Agro (Rs 480.80 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs 392.70 crore), Reliance (Rs 296 crore) and Reliance Capital (Rs 255.60 crore).

Reliance Natural Resources led the volume chart with trades of around 2.77 crore shares followed by Aries Agro (2.14 crore), Reliance Petroleum (1.80 crore), Ispat Industries (1.28 crore) and IFCI (1.20 crore).

FIIs net buyers of Rs 107cr in cash market on January 11th...

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers of Rs 107.40 crore (provisional) today, January 11th, according to data released by BSE.

While FIIs made gross purchases of Rs 3,807.29 crore, gross sales totalled Rs 3,699.89 crore.

Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Rs 1.92 crore today. While DIIs made gross purchases of Rs 1,298.51 crore, gross sales totalled Rs 1,296.59 crore.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs 630.80 crore on Thursday, January 10, according to data released by Sebi today. While FIIs made gross purchases of Rs 4,334.20 crore, gross sales totalled Rs 4,965 crore.

Mutual funds (MFs) were net buyers of Rs 46.40 crore on Thursday. MFs made purchases of Rs 1,204.70 crore and sales of Rs 1,158.40 crore.

Infosys expects 19% y-o-y rise in Q4 net

Infosys expects consolidated income in the Q4 to grow around 19% in the range of Rs 4,477 crore to Rs 4,501 crore.

According to a release issued by the company to the BSE today, the company expects EPS growth of 5.3% on year-on-year basis to Rs 21.38.

For the full-year ending March 2008, the company expects income in the range of Rs 16,627 crore to Rs 16,651 crore - up nearly 20%. EPS for FY08 is expected to be Rs 81.07 - up 17.1%.

Infosys Q3 net up 25%, top-line grew 17%...

Bangalore-based India's second largest software exporter, Infosys Technologies, historically has a seasonally-weak third quarter. This third quarter was no different.

Though the company registered a net profit (Indian GAAP) of Rs 1,231 crore for the third quarter ending December 31, 2007 - 25% increase when compared to the figure of the corresponding quarter last financial year - the figure included a reversal of tax provision of Rs 50 crore. The company' share price lost 1.38% to touch Rs 1580.10 on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

The top-line (year-on-year) rose by 17% to reach Rs 4,271 crore. However, on a sequential (compared to the trailing quarter) basis, the revenue increased by a mere 4%. The figure was lower that analyst expectations of a 5-6% top-line growth. The company's sequential net profit, on the other hand, rose by 12%. However, excluding the tax write-back, it grew by 7.4%.

On the other hand, the growth in dollar terms (US GAAP) was decent at 6.1%. Volume growth, aided by price increases proved to be the key driver of the top-line.

Infosys managed to surprise the market with its EBITDA (operating profit) margin expanding by 1.3% sequentially to 32.6%, led by an increase in offshoring and fixed priced contracts, coupled with scale benefits that resulted in reducing the selling, general and administration (SG&A) expenses. Offshore revenues increased from 51.2% in the trailing quarter to 52.2% in the third quarter. The contribution of revenues from fixed price contracts also increased from 29.8% in the second quarter to 32.8% in Q3. Offshore billing rates saw a rise of 1.3%, while onsite rates grew by 1.1% sequentially.

Meanwhile, the earnings per share (EPS) increased to Rs 21.54 from Rs 17.64 for the corresponding quarter in the previous year. The other income was Rs 158 crore as against Rs 154 crore in the second quarter of FY 2008. Infosys has guided towards a growth of 4.8–5.4% in revenues and 5.3% in EPS for the fourth quarter ending March 31, 2008.

The company’s consolidated income has already crossed $3 billion mark ($3.03 billion) and is set to cross the $4 billion mark in consolidated revenue at the end of current fiscal (2007-08) under US GAAP -- projecting 35% year-on-year growth. In rupee terms, it expects to close the year in the range of Rs 16,627 crore and Rs 16,651 crore in revenue, a year-on-year growth of 19.7% to 19.9%.

Downplaying the threat of recession, Gopalakrishnan said, "There is no visibility of the IT budget being impacted by a possible recession or slow down. The environment is positive and growth looks favourable though the macro-environment is challenging. The outsourcing/off-shoring of IT services will continue to grow by 25-30%, as maintained by Nasscom."

Infosys CFO V Balakrishnan said the growth was aided by various factors. "We have seen a 3-4% increase in pricing for new contracts. Even those which have been renewed have been done at higher price point. Contract re-negotiations have been in our favour. The outlook on the pricing front is positive," he added.

Infosys now sits on over $2 billion (Rs 7,933 crore) of cash which gives it a formidable armoury for acquisition. In comparison, its ability to invest on organic growth was limited (Rs 325 crore during the quarter). Unless this cash is not spent on acquisitions, it has to be returned to shareholders.

Q3 figures in a nutshell:

* Revenue growth: 17% YoY; 4% Q-o-Q
* Net profit growht: 25% YoY; 12% Q-o-Q
* Growth outlook for FY08: 19.7-19.9%
* Revenue crosses $3 bn in nine months

What the figures tell:

* Volume growth of 4% very disappointing
* Excluding the tax write-back, net profit grew by 7.4% Q-o-Q
* But operating margin improved by 1.3%: 31.27% to 32.59%
* Kept costs under control; reduced SG&A expenses
* Scale benefits added 1.4% to margins
* 47 clients added this quarter; closed 9 multi-million dollar deals
* Growth rate of BFSI revenue increases; client additions increase
* Productivity improvement adds 0.8% to margins
* Employee utilisation slightly lower due to trainee hiring
* Lost Rs 2,100 crore due to rupee appreciation so far this year
* Hedging covers two quarters exposure (around $1 bn)
* Marginally revises revenue guidance upwards
* Attrition 13.7%; Total employees: 88,601 (added net 8,100 this quarter)
* 35% of employee salaries in India are variable

How BSE indices closed on January 11th...