Sunday, May 31, 2009

Worst seems to be over for India Inc: Ficci survey

India Inc has regained the much-needed business confidence with majority of 300 companies stating, in an industry survey, that they see better economic outlook in the next six months.

As many as 57 per cent of the companies measured on the quarterly business confidence index (BCI) of Ficci, indicated that they expect the overall economic condition to be 'moderately to substantially' better in the next six months.

The Ficci survey of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008-09 is in sharp contrast with findings of the BCI of the previous quarter when only 9 per cent firms had seen a bright outlook.

"The economy has bottomed out as was also indicated in the last survey and is clearly in the recovery mode," Ficci said.

The gross domestic production (GDP) recorded in the last fiscal was 6.7 per cent, which was better-than-expected.

Improvement in business confidence comes amidst the new UPA government working on a 100-day programme for putting the economy back on the fast track.

The BCI for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008-09 was up to 64.1 from 44 in the last quarter.

About 47 per cent of the respondents said that their current firm performance has improved vis-à-vis last six months, representing a jump of 26 per cent from 21 per cent in the last survey.

The percentage of companies which saw a deterioration in their performance over the last six months has declined significantly to 18 per cent from 55 per cent in the last survey, the Ficci-BCI survey said.

The chamber has surveyed companies in various sectors, including textiles, cement, steel, leather, chemicals and fertilisers, FMCG, banking and autos.

However, the companies feel that there are hindrances in their growth, including weak demand, high cost of credit, although the credit problem has come down in the current survey.

The steps taken by the RBI and the government over the past two quarters have been instrumental in giving a boost to demand but there is still scope for further announcements to bring the economy back in full swing, the survey said.

Further, the respondents indicated that they would want to see a decline in interest rate by about 3-4 per cent.

"There is an immediate need to bring down the interest rate in line with the decline in the repo rate," the survey said.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Survey: most economists see recession end in '09

More than 90 percent of economists predict the U.S. recession will end this year, although the recovery is likely to be bumpy.

Other news...

# World stocks continue to rally on US economy hopes

# US likely taking majority ownership of GM

# Chrysler heads to court for key bankruptcy hearing

# Oil rises to 6-month high above $63

Monday, May 25, 2009

European markets flat, Asia gains...

European stocks searched for direction today, closing little changed amid ongoing concerns about the sustainability of recent market gains. Asian shares rose, shrugging off reports of a nuclear test by North Korea.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Record gains for Sensex in 17 years

Stock indices rose, with the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or the Sensex, posting its highest weekly gain in 17 years.

The markets started the week on a extraordinary note, with the Sensex hitting the upper circuit twice in the day on Monday, and finally trading was suspended for the days with just few seconds of trade.

Over the week, the benchmark index gained 14.08 per cent, which is the sharpest since the week ended March 27, 1992. It has also risen for 11 consecutive weeks for the first time since August 2005. During these 11 weeks the index has gained a whopping 66.80 per cent (5,561 points) since the week ended March 6, 2009.

Among the index stocks - Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Communications zoomed 37% and 36%, respectively. Tata Steel, SBI, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, DLF and ONGC surged 29-34% each.

Jaiprakash Associates, Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, BHEL, HDFC Bank, NTPC, Tata Power and ACC were the other major gainers.

However, the tech stocks did not participate in the market rally. Infosys shed nearly 5% at Rs 1,519. TCS and Wipro declined around 2% each.

Most India funds outpace Sensex since March 9

Out of 150 India equity funds, 89 have outperformed Sensex.

International equity funds for India have seen an appreciation of almost 74 per cent in the total value of their assets between March 9 and now, according to data collected from Bloomberg.

The total assets of these funds increased from $15.86 billion on March 9 to $27.52 billion on May 21 — a rise of 74 per cent. In comparison, the benchmark BSE Sensitive Index posted a return of 68.33 per cent during the same period.

Out of 150 India funds, the 89 which have outperformed the benchmark indices show an average return of 81.55 per cent. The remaining 61 funds, who underperformed the market, gained 56.28 per cent during the same period, on an average. These funds are based in Luxembourg, Mauritius, South Korea, Japan, Britain and the USA.

As per Bloomberg, the Net Asset Values (NAVs) of all funds have appreciated over 30 per cent during the period. As many as 17 funds posted impressive returns of more than 90 per cent, 108 funds between 50-90 per cent and the remaining 25 funds between 30-50 per cent.

One of the oldest India funds, JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust, which is listed in the UK, showed a return of 60 per cent, while the NAVs of Jupiter, Neptune and New India Investment trust funds increased by around 50 per cent in the period.

They are mobilising resources from overseas investors to invest in equity markets of major countries.

The Indian-stock Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) enjoyed more gains as NYSE-listed funds joined in the buying spree during the recent market rally. PowerShares India Portfolio, Barclays iPath ETN and WisdomTree Investments Inc — which track a broad gauge of stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange — have posted a return of more than 85 per cent.

Top holdings of these funds were Reliance Industries, Infosys Technologies, ICICI Bank, Housing Development Finance Corp and HDFC Bank.

Investing in India presents vast opportunities for global equity investors, especially when contrarian outlooks reveal beaten-down value funds. The funds' objective is long-term capital appreciation. They invest in large-cap Indian equity securities and A-plus rated instruments, giving 100 per cent exposure to the MSCI India Index. The funds also look at market timing to take advantage of the high volatility in the Indian markets and invest in companies whose activities are closely related to the economic development of India.

The India funds, which operate from the US, top the value-appreciation chart, with an average return of 93.86 per cent. The total assets of these funds increased from $973 million on March 9 to $1.89 billion. They were followed by Mauritius (79.57 per cent), Luxembourg (78.50 per cent), France (76.25 per cent), Singapore (70.72 per cent), Finland (68.90 per cent), UK (56.47 per cent) and South Korea (52.78 per cent).

The NAV of Luxembourg-listed HSBC GIF India equity fund has almost doubled between March 9 and May 21. The world's largest single holding of Indian equities outside the nation, this fund's total assets stood at $2.78 billion as on May 21.

Monday, May 18, 2009

SENSEX SECONDS PEOPLE'S VERDICT... ZOOMS 17%


Investor wealth swells by Rs 6.5 lakh cr in a minute

Investors have become richer by a whopping Rs 6.5 lakh crore in just a minute as the Sensex saw a historic 2,111 point rise to the 14,000 level as the markets cheered the decisive win of the ruling UPA government in the Lok Sabha elections.

Investor wealth, measured in terms of the combined market capitalisation of all the listed companies, increased by over Rs 6,56,477 crore in a minute -- in the first 30 seconds and then after the resumption of trading at 1155 hours -- to Rs 44,63,420.97 crore.

The 30-share Bombay Stock Exchange, the Sensex, zoomed 1,305.97 points at 13,479.39, hitting the upper circuit within seconds of opening of trade, following which trading was halted for two hours. After trading resumed, the Sensex soared 806 points at 14,284.21, following which trading was halted for the day.

Hopes of a stable government at the Centre for the next five-years, and positive moves such as stimulus and reforms taking place during this period have boosted the sentiment in the Indian stock markets.

Life in a way has come in full circle for the UPA. In 2004, when the UPA coalition came to power, the Sensex hit its 10% lower circuit and tanked over 11% eventually. Today, however, the index has done a complete vice versa, the index has hit its 20% upper limit and has closed for the day.

The change in fortunes is for obvious different reasons, last time around a coalition government backed by Left support was coming into power, while this around it's an almost majority UPA government coming to power.

Sensex creates history: hits 14,000, triggers trade halt


Welcoming UPA's win in the general elections, Indian markets opened on a very upbeat note triggering off circuit breakers for the first time ever.

The markets surged nearly 15 percent within seconds of opening on today, triggering circuit breakers that halted trade for two hours as investors celebrated a sweeping election victory for the ruling coalition.

The markets further extended their gains, immediately on re-opening after the two hour halt, which triggered the final circuit breaker that shut trade for the day.

It was the first time a circuit breaker has been set off by a rise in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), a spokesman said.

The benchmark 30-share BSE index rose 17 percent to 14,284 points, its highest since September 23, and the 50-share National Stock Exchange (NSE) index jumped 15 percent to 4,203.30, also an eight-month high.

Earlier, the BSE said its index had risen 11 percent before the halt.

"It is very surprising because the turnover was not much. It's very hard to understand how the circuit breakers have been triggered when the volumes are so low," T.S. Harihar, vice president at ICICI Securities, said.

Circuit breakers are set based on moves of 10 percent, 15 percent and 20 percent using the close to the previous quarter as a base. Triggering a circuit breaker in one market also closes the other.

The BSE index was up 1,790 points and the NSE index was up 532 points at the halt, both having crossed the 15 percent trigger limits.

When trade resumed, the BSE index extended its rise to 2,110 points and the NSE rose to be up 600 points on the day. The 20 percent limit was triggered and trade was halted for the day.

Monday, May 11, 2009

World markets down as rally runs out of steam

World markets lower as some investors book profits from rally; Hong Kong off nearly 2 pct

Global stock markets retreated today, breaking several days of gains, as positive news of fewer job losses in the U.S. was blunted by investors moving to book recent profits.

Most Asian markets closed down, with white-hot Chinese and Hong Kong shares giving back all their gains from early in the session and then some. Crude oil prices and the dollar both slid.

The region's investors were emboldened early in the day by the latest dose of less dreary news: a key monthly job report showing the world's largest economy shed 539,000 jobs last month -- the lowest in six months. The reading amounted to far fewer than forecast, feeding a popular theme of economic recovery that's driven world markets sharply higher since early March.

But many analysts say recent improvements in the economy may not justify the swift rise in equity prices of late. They say the rally is being fueled in part by hot money flowing from mutual funds and other big investors that could delay a major correction for weeks or months but isn't the stuff of lasting bull runs.

"The markets are becoming overbought. The fundamentals of the economy just don't support these levels so we're seeing some profit taking," said Peter Lai, investment manager at DBS Vickers in Hong Kong.

European markets opened lower with Britain's FTSE 100 down 1.1 percent, Germany's DAX off 1.4 percent and France's CAC-40 losing 1.5 percent. Wall Street looked to give back some of its gains after U.S. futures fell. Dow futures were down 94 points, or 1.1 percent, to 8,422, while S&P 500 futures were down 12.7 points, or 1.4 percent, to 912.

In Asia, Japan recouped losses to closed higher, with the Nikkei up 19.15 points, or 0.2 percent, to 9,451.98, as hopes for a global economic recovery eclipsed disappointment over a stream of poor corporate earnings. Weighing on the broader market were automakers after Toyota reported its worst-ever annual loss -- and forecast an even bigger losses this year. Toyota shares fell 4.8 percent.

Chinese shares, meanwhile, snapped a six-session winning streak as the benchmark Shanghai Composite dropped 1.8 percent to 2,579.78. That dragged on Hong Kong's Hang Seng, off 301.92 points, or 1.7 percent, to 17,087.95 after climbing nearly 2 percent early in the day.

Investors in greater China were watching for a chance to take profits after the recent rally, though prices initially rose after the government reported that China's main inflation barometer fell 1.5 percent in April from a year earlier, in line with expectations.

The data, along with reports that bank lending may have fallen from record levels, dashed hopes for another interest rate cut, analysts said.

Elsewhere, South Korea's Kospi gained 0.2 percent and Taiwan's benchmark rose 1 percent; Australia and India stock measures fell.

In New York Friday, investors consoled by the government's bank tests and the jobs report sent the Dow up 164.80 points, or 2 percent, to 8,574.65. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 21.84, or 2.4 percent, to 929.23, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 22.76, or 1.3 percent, to 1,739.00.

Most Asia markets extend gains after US job data

Most Asia markets extend gains as US job data buoy confidence; Hong Kong up nearly 2 pct

Asian stocks were mostly higher today morning as news of fewer job losses in the U.S. gave investors more confidence the world's largest economy was headed toward recovery.

Gains across most of the region added to a two-month rally that's showing few signs of abating as expectations grow for an end to the global slump by year's end. Asian bank shares rose after their struggling U.S. peers advanced Friday amid relief over the government's "stress tests," while the dollar climbed against the yen. Oil prices, moderately lower, were still trading near this year's peak.

The latest dose of less dreary news came from a key monthly job report showing U.S. employers axed 539,000 jobs last month. It was the lowest in six months and far fewer than forecast, feeding a theme of recovery that has emboldened bullish investors of late.

While many analysts say recent improvements in the economy may not justify the swift rise in equity prices, hot money flowing from mutual funds and other big investors could put off any correction in the market for weeks or months.

"I wouldn't say things are getting better, but they are getting less worse. We are starting to see some stabilization," said Andrew Orchard, Asia strategist for Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong. "The concerns long-term are we may overshoot and predict a recovery too quickly."

Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 289.20, or 1.7 percent, to 17,679.07, and South Korea's Kospi was 0.3 percent higher at 1,415.99.

Japan recouped losses to edge higher, with the Nikkei up 10.62 points, or 0.1 percent, at 9443.45. Weighing on the broader market were automakers after Toyota reported its worst-ever annual loss -- and forecast an even bigger losses this year. Toyota shares were down 4.8 percent.

Elsewhere, Taiwan and Indian benchmarks rose, while those in Shanghai and Australia were modestly lower.

In New York Friday, investors consoled by the government's bank tests and the jobs report sent the Dow up 164.80 points, or 2 percent, to 8,574.65. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 21.84, or 2.4 percent, to 929.23, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 22.76, or 1.3 percent, to 1,739.00.

Wall Street looked to give back some of its gains after U.S. futures fell. Dow futures were down 46 points, or 0.5 percent, to 8,470, while S&P futures were down 5.7 points, or 0.6 percent, to 919.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Inflation, election blues pull down markets...

The Sensex today opened in the red at 12,093, down 24 points. The index swung between zones till noon wherein it touched a high of 12,180. The index then broke down owing to rise in inflation rates and profit taking at higher levels. Uncertainity over the election results also weighed on the market sentiments.

The index touched a low of 11,765, down 415 points from the day's high.

The Sensex finally ended down 241 points at 11,876.

The market breadth was neutral. Out of 2,621 stocks traded, 1,267 declined while 1,266 advanced. The rest were unchanged.

INDEX SHAKERS...

Wipro slumped 7% to Rs 355. ICICI Bank, Sterlite and Reliance Infrastructure plunged 5% each to Rs 521, Rs 492 and Rs 769, respectively.

Mahindra & Mahindra , HDFC, Reliance Communications and Tata Steel shed 4% each at Rs 494, Rs 1,740, Rs 230 and Rs 283, respectively.

ACC, BHEL and SBI dropped over 3% each.

HDFC Bank, Hindalco, Infosys, DLF, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, Tata Power, Reliance, ITC and ONGC declined 1-3% each.

...AND MOVERS

Jaiprakash Associates gained 2.5% at Rs 142. Hindustan Unilever advanced 1% to Rs 233.

OTHER PROMINENT LOSERS

United Spirits tumbled nearly 7% to Rs 667. Jain Irrigation Systems plunged 5.5% to Rs 490.

United Phosphorus, Glenmark Pharma, RECL, Godrej Industries, Ambuja Cement, Jindal Steel, Tulip Telecom, JSW Steel, Adani Enterprises, Zee Entertainment, IVRCL Infrastructure and Cadila Healthcare declined 4-5% each.

AND GAINERS

Bhushan Steel zoomed 14% to Rs 683. GMDC soared 10% to Rs 71. Neyveli Lignite Corporation surged 9% to Rs 103.

Hindustan Copper, Aban Offshore, Videocon Industries, Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren, GTL Infrastructure, UCO Bank, Jai Corp, Indiabulls and Shriram Transport Finance Company advanced 4-7% each.

MOST ACTIVE COUNTERS

HDFC Bank topped the value chart with a turnover of over Rs 1,524.22 crore. It was followed by Reliance (Rs 203.46 crore), ICICI Bank (Rs 186.57 crore), Tata Steel (Rs 177.99 crore), and HDIL (Rs 166.25 crore).

Ispat Industries led the volume chart with 30.79 million shares traded on the BSE. It was followed by Reliance Natural Resources (14.39 million), Suzlon (13.68 million), HDFC Bank (13.67million) and Unitech (11.54 million).

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Rules for Investing in the Next Bull Market

Courtesy:




How to be smarter when the bull market comes back – and it will.

Is this a new bull market? Nobody really knows for certain. But one will -- presumably -- come along in due course. Will investors make the same mistakes they made last time, or will they be wiser? Here are 11 rules for the next bull market -- whenever it turns up.

1. Avoid big moves.

If you buy or sell heavily in one shot you're taking a needless risk. And waiting for the right moment to make your move is futile. You probably won't catch the bottom or the peak anyway. If a market trend has much further to run, then what's the rush? And if it doesn't … what's the rush?

2. Remember the market is just "us."

No wonder shares rose when everyone was buying, and fell when they were selling. That was the reason. And when everyone is trying to predict "the market," they are effectively chasing themselves through a hall of mirrors.

3. Don't get fooled, don't get tense… and don't get fooled by the wrong tense.

Wall Street is riddled with people who mistake the past perfect ("these shares have risen") with the present ("these shares are rising") or the future ("these shares will rise."). Don't get suckered.

4. Pay no attention to TINA.

Sooner or later someone will urge you to buy shares, even at very high prices, because There Is No Alternative. It is a popular hustle at the peak of the market. There are always alternatives -- like holding more cash until valuations are more attractive.

5. Be truly diversified.

That means investing across a spread of different asset classes and strategies. As investors discovered last year, "large cap value" and "mid cap blend" funds don't offer diversification. They're just marketing gimmicks.

6. Treat forecasts with a grain of salt.

Most economists missed the recession, most strategists missed the crash, and most analysts are bullish just before a stock falls. Even the good experts are prone to group think, office politics, career risk - and hall of mirror syndrome (see point 3, above).

7. Never invest in what you don't understand.

Be happy to underperform a bull market. During the last boom, many investors were advised to go all-in on shares to get the biggest long-term gains. But the stock market has infinite risk tolerance and an infinite time horizon. Real people can't compete with market indices, and shouldn't try.

8. Ignore what everyone else is doing.

It's natural to want to "join the crowd" and avoid being "left behind." Leave those instincts in eighth grade. When it comes to investing, do what's right for you and your family.

9. Be patient.

Investment opportunities are like buses. If you missed one, you don't have to chase it. Relax. If history is any guide, others will be along shortly.

10. Don't sit on the sidelines completely until it's too late.

You'll probably end up splurging at the last moment. If you are afraid to invest, do it early, little, and often.

11. And above all: Price matters.

After all, an investment is just a claim check on future cash flows, whether it be a company's profits, a bond's coupons or an annuity's income stream. By definition, shares in a solvent company are twice as good at half the price… and vice versa. It's amazing how many people get suckered into thinking it's the other way around.

Sunday, May 3, 2009

US Stocks Start Month With Modest Gain

US stock markets edged higher on Friday as investors assessed the previous month's surge and the economy's chances of recovery.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 44.29 points, or 0.5%, to 8212.42. For the week, the Dow industrials gained 1.7%.

The S&P 500 rose 4.71 points, or 0.5%, to 877.52 amid a 3.2% jump in its energy sector as oil prices put in a solid rally that helped to boost the shares of producers. The broad market measure was up 1.3% on the week.

Crude-oil futures rose $2.08 to settle at $53.20 a barrel, a six-week high.

As in the stock market, budding hopes for an economic recovery have pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks. Oil also seemed to benefit from a round of short covering, or unwinding of bearish bets, after it failed to break through overnight lows around the psychologically important $50 level, traders said.

"We've got a light-volume market in crude right now, and in that kind of environment, the short-term money can really move prices around," said Ray Carbone, president of Paramount Options, a floor brokerage in New York. "That's what we're seeing with a lot of this covering going on today." (Friday)

The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.90 points, or 0.1%, at 1719.20 on Friday. It rose 1.5% whole of last week.

Economic news...

Citi Said To Need Upto $10 Billion

Citigroup may need to raise as much as $10 billion in new capital, as the government continues negotiations with banks over the results of its so-called stress tests.

Chrysler's Bankruptcy Staggers Affiliates

Chrysler faced mounting pressure as the auto maker was forced to idle four plants and its dealers scrambled to find new sources of credit a day after the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

ADB Plans $3 Billion Crisis Fund

The Asian Development Bank is planning to launch a $3 billion loan facility to help its "developing member countries cope with the crisis."