Going by history, the stock market could be in for some troubles as September has been the worst month historically for the bourses, but the analysts are still hopeful that the trend may be reversed this time around.
Moreover, the analysts here believe that September being the worst month of the year in terms of the benchmark index performance is more of a US phenomenon and the Indian market, being structurally different, might not follow the same trend.
According to an analysis of the the average monthly performance over the last 100 years of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the benchmark index of the US market, the month of September has given the worst return with an average decline of 0.96 per cent.
The analysis shows that over the last 100 years, the month of September has recorded decline a majority of 58 times.
In September 2008, the Indian stock market benchmark Sensex fell by 1,704 points or 12 per cent, while DJIA declined by 666 points or six per cent.
Last September also recorded a complete collapse in the investor confidence levels worldwide, as the American banking giant Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and was followed by a series of high profile failures and heightened financial crisis.
Besides, the volatility tends to be the maximum during this month and it has been historically about 10 per cent higher than the previous month in the US stock market, as turbulence and fear grips the market with a bearish phase.
"One should execise caution as September tends to be a weaker month for stock market as history shows that the volatility in the US markets reaches its highest," SMC Global Vice President Rajesh Jain said.
However, others believe that the signs of improving economic growth rate scenario and the build-up in the investors' confidence should ward off the concerns in India.
"Volatility is already there in the market in the past few trading sessions. However, the scenario now is positive as the signs of faster economic growth is fuelling the market forward," Unicon Financial Chief Executive G Nagpal said.
Ashika Stock Brokers Research Head Paras Bothra also noted that at the current levels, instead of going down, there was more probability that the stocks would move up.
"Market has a habit of greeting investors with a surprise. But, there could be huge movement on the indices and volatility would be heightened," he added.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Seven of top-10 firms gain Rs 51,000 cr in August
Seven out of the top-10 coveted firms in the country saw their total market capitalisation climb over Rs 51,000 crore in August, while state-run NTPC, MMTC and SBI witnessed value erosion
The country's most valued firm Reliance Industries (RIL) added Rs 17,816 crore to its market-cap so far this month, taking its total valuation to Rs 3,25,838 crore.
As on July 31, RIL had a market-cap of Rs 3,08,022 crore.
Oil firm ONGC and private sector telecom operator Bharti Airtel added Rs 3,144 crore and Rs 9,207 crore, to their respective valuations.
Further, the market valuation of ONGC stood at Rs 2,52,216 crore and Airtel at Rs 1,65,087 crore as on August 29.
Power producer NTPC and trading firm MMTC lost Rs 4,494 crore and Rs 2,401 crore, respectively from their market- cap during the period from July 31 to August 29.
The market valuations of NTPC and MMTC fell to Rs 1,73,278 crore and Rs 1,46,476 crore, respectively.
Mineral major NMDC rose to the fifth slot from sixth after adding Rs 6,462 crore to its market cap, taking its total valuation to Rs 1,48,855 crore during.
The country's largest public sector lender SBI slipped to the ninth position from eighth after losing Rs 2,060 crore from its market cap, while IT bellwether Infosys Technologies added Rs 7,625 crore.
The country's most valued firm Reliance Industries (RIL) added Rs 17,816 crore to its market-cap so far this month, taking its total valuation to Rs 3,25,838 crore.
As on July 31, RIL had a market-cap of Rs 3,08,022 crore.
Oil firm ONGC and private sector telecom operator Bharti Airtel added Rs 3,144 crore and Rs 9,207 crore, to their respective valuations.
Further, the market valuation of ONGC stood at Rs 2,52,216 crore and Airtel at Rs 1,65,087 crore as on August 29.
Power producer NTPC and trading firm MMTC lost Rs 4,494 crore and Rs 2,401 crore, respectively from their market- cap during the period from July 31 to August 29.
The market valuations of NTPC and MMTC fell to Rs 1,73,278 crore and Rs 1,46,476 crore, respectively.
Mineral major NMDC rose to the fifth slot from sixth after adding Rs 6,462 crore to its market cap, taking its total valuation to Rs 1,48,855 crore during.
The country's largest public sector lender SBI slipped to the ninth position from eighth after losing Rs 2,060 crore from its market cap, while IT bellwether Infosys Technologies added Rs 7,625 crore.
UPA-II effect: FIIs infuse Rs 23,000 cr in 100 days
Call it the effect of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government or a hope of a revival for the Indian stock markets, the country has witnessed an inflow of nearly Rs 23,700 crore from overseas investors since the new term of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
An analysis of the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) activity shows that since May 22, the day Prime Minister took oath for a second term to lead the UPA government, FIIs have made a net investment of Rs 23,688.8 crore in the domestic stock markets.
On August 29, the UPA government completed its 100 days in office with a mixed bag of good work on certain fronts while stumbling on several issues.
The inflow during the period (May 22-August 29) accounts for over 65 per cent of the total FII inflow this year so far into the Indian stock markets.
According to the data available with market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), so far in 2009 FIIs have made a net investment of Rs 39,179.60 crore.
During the period under review, July witnessed an inflow of Rs 11,066 crore, the highest in a month. In June the inflow was Rs 3,830 crore, while in August it is Rs 3,810 crore.
"FIIs have confidence in the India growth story and have invested at a cheaper level. Now that markets have moved up more participation would be seen as the foreign funds would like to be left out for participating in the rally," SMC Global Vice President Rajesh Jain said.
An analysis of the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) activity shows that since May 22, the day Prime Minister took oath for a second term to lead the UPA government, FIIs have made a net investment of Rs 23,688.8 crore in the domestic stock markets.
On August 29, the UPA government completed its 100 days in office with a mixed bag of good work on certain fronts while stumbling on several issues.
The inflow during the period (May 22-August 29) accounts for over 65 per cent of the total FII inflow this year so far into the Indian stock markets.
According to the data available with market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), so far in 2009 FIIs have made a net investment of Rs 39,179.60 crore.
During the period under review, July witnessed an inflow of Rs 11,066 crore, the highest in a month. In June the inflow was Rs 3,830 crore, while in August it is Rs 3,810 crore.
"FIIs have confidence in the India growth story and have invested at a cheaper level. Now that markets have moved up more participation would be seen as the foreign funds would like to be left out for participating in the rally," SMC Global Vice President Rajesh Jain said.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Sensex ends in green despite weak core sector growth
The Sensex rose to a three-week high, led by smart rally in IT stocks on the BSE today, following consumer confidence surge in the US, the largest market for software exporters. The conference board's confidence index climbed to 54.1 in August, its first gain in last three months.
The Sensex today opened with a positive gap of 75 points. The Sensex experienced a brief slippage and touched a low of 15,695, after a report on industrial output was declared. The growth of six core infrastructure industries - petroleum refinery, crude oil, coal, electricity, cement and finished steel,decreased to 1.8% in July, as against 5.1% a year ago, as petroleum refinery output acted as a drag on the sector. However, the prevalent positive sentiment earlier in the day helped the markets to trade in the green for the rest of the day. The Sensex touched an intra-day high of 15,831, up 143 points and finally settled at 15,769, up 81 points.
The NSE Nifty settled at 4,680, up 21 points.
The BSE midcap and smallcap indices outperformed the broader market. The midcap index advanced over 1% to 5,800 and the smallcap index gained nearly 2% to close at 6,878.
The market breadth was positive - out of 2,867 stocks, 1,941 advanced and 853 declined today.
The Sensex today opened with a positive gap of 75 points. The Sensex experienced a brief slippage and touched a low of 15,695, after a report on industrial output was declared. The growth of six core infrastructure industries - petroleum refinery, crude oil, coal, electricity, cement and finished steel,decreased to 1.8% in July, as against 5.1% a year ago, as petroleum refinery output acted as a drag on the sector. However, the prevalent positive sentiment earlier in the day helped the markets to trade in the green for the rest of the day. The Sensex touched an intra-day high of 15,831, up 143 points and finally settled at 15,769, up 81 points.
The NSE Nifty settled at 4,680, up 21 points.
The BSE midcap and smallcap indices outperformed the broader market. The midcap index advanced over 1% to 5,800 and the smallcap index gained nearly 2% to close at 6,878.
The market breadth was positive - out of 2,867 stocks, 1,941 advanced and 853 declined today.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Markets ready for a major move
Following the consolidation last week, the markets look set for a major move this week. However, it is not clear if the major move will be a decisive (breakout or breakdown) one or a both-way one.
Technicals suggest that the markets are likely to first make an up move, followed by a sharper downswing in the coming days. The Sensex is likely to face resistance at 15,670-15,700, above which the index may spike to higher levels backed by significant short-covering by the bears. However, if the index fails to break above the 15,670-15,700 resistance zone, one may see a sharp reversal wherein the index may plunge below the 14,700-level.
Last week, the Sensex, after a dismal start, consolidated around the 14,700 level before recovering partially and settling at 15,241, down 1.1 per cent (171 points). The intra-week range for the index narrowed to 600 points, from around 850 points in the last three weeks.
Among the index stocks, HDFC surged over 5 per cent to Rs 2,432 and BHEL gained 4.5 per cent to Rs 2,298. Maruti, HDFC Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever and Tata Power were the other notable gainers. On the other hand, Tata Motors tumbled over 7 per cent to Rs 433. Reliance Infrastructure and ACC shed 6.5 per cent each. Tata Steel, Reliance, Sterlite, Reliance Communications, Hindalco, DLF, Sun Pharma and Jaiprakash Associates declined 3-5 per cent each.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 225 points. The index, after touching a low of 4,353, recovered partially and ended with a loss of 51 points at 4,529.
The Nifty has near resistance around 4,615-4,640, above which the index may make a fresh attempt to break past the 4,700 mark. However, on the downside, a sustained stay below 4,400, could see the index slide up to 4,170.
Technicals suggest that the markets are likely to first make an up move, followed by a sharper downswing in the coming days. The Sensex is likely to face resistance at 15,670-15,700, above which the index may spike to higher levels backed by significant short-covering by the bears. However, if the index fails to break above the 15,670-15,700 resistance zone, one may see a sharp reversal wherein the index may plunge below the 14,700-level.
Last week, the Sensex, after a dismal start, consolidated around the 14,700 level before recovering partially and settling at 15,241, down 1.1 per cent (171 points). The intra-week range for the index narrowed to 600 points, from around 850 points in the last three weeks.
Among the index stocks, HDFC surged over 5 per cent to Rs 2,432 and BHEL gained 4.5 per cent to Rs 2,298. Maruti, HDFC Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever and Tata Power were the other notable gainers. On the other hand, Tata Motors tumbled over 7 per cent to Rs 433. Reliance Infrastructure and ACC shed 6.5 per cent each. Tata Steel, Reliance, Sterlite, Reliance Communications, Hindalco, DLF, Sun Pharma and Jaiprakash Associates declined 3-5 per cent each.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 225 points. The index, after touching a low of 4,353, recovered partially and ended with a loss of 51 points at 4,529.
The Nifty has near resistance around 4,615-4,640, above which the index may make a fresh attempt to break past the 4,700 mark. However, on the downside, a sustained stay below 4,400, could see the index slide up to 4,170.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
World stocks up strongly as China bounces back
World stock markets rose strongly today after Chinese shares enjoyed their biggest rally since March, a day after slumping nearly 5 percent and officially entering a bear market.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Bulls fight back, Sensex gains 250pts
After yesterday's debacle, a fall of over 600 points on the Sensex, the index today opened 39 points lower at 14,746 tracking subdued cues from the global markets.
The benchmark index however rebounded into the positive zone but slipped back into the red for a brief while to touch a low of 14,740. Extensive buying in realty, metal and power stocks pulled the index from its lower levels and the index rallied to touch a high of 15,134. The Sensex exhibited volatility and moved in the range of 395 points throughout the day. Strong opening of the European bourses also added to the upmove.
The BSE benchmark finally ended at 15,035, up 250 points or 1.5% from the previous close. The NSE Nifty ended at 4459, up 1.5%.
The market breadth was positive. Out of 2,714 shares traded, 1,733 (64%) advanced, 900 (33%) declined and 81 (3%) were unchanged on the BSE today.
The midcap and the smallcap indices outperformed the broader market. The indices were up 2% each.
All the sectoral indices ended in green. The BSE Capital Goods Index surged around 4% to 12,314. The Realty, metal and Power indices added over 2% each.
Auto, bankex, FMCG, oil & gas, healthcare, consumer durables and IT indices were the other sectoral movers.
INDEX MOVERS...
Hindalco advanced 6% to Rs 106. Jaiprakash Associates and Larsen & Toubro increased over 4.5% each to Rs 212 and Rs 1,477, respectively.
Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel and HDFC added over 3% each to Rs 258, Rs 451 and Rs 2,321, respectively.
DLF, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, HDFC Bank, Reliance Communications, ICICI Bank, Reliance Infrastruture and Maruti were up 2-3% each.
...AND THE SHAKERS
Infosys, Grasim Industries, TCS and Sun Pharma were the marginal losers today, down around 0.5% each.
The benchmark index however rebounded into the positive zone but slipped back into the red for a brief while to touch a low of 14,740. Extensive buying in realty, metal and power stocks pulled the index from its lower levels and the index rallied to touch a high of 15,134. The Sensex exhibited volatility and moved in the range of 395 points throughout the day. Strong opening of the European bourses also added to the upmove.
The BSE benchmark finally ended at 15,035, up 250 points or 1.5% from the previous close. The NSE Nifty ended at 4459, up 1.5%.
The market breadth was positive. Out of 2,714 shares traded, 1,733 (64%) advanced, 900 (33%) declined and 81 (3%) were unchanged on the BSE today.
The midcap and the smallcap indices outperformed the broader market. The indices were up 2% each.
All the sectoral indices ended in green. The BSE Capital Goods Index surged around 4% to 12,314. The Realty, metal and Power indices added over 2% each.
Auto, bankex, FMCG, oil & gas, healthcare, consumer durables and IT indices were the other sectoral movers.
INDEX MOVERS...
Hindalco advanced 6% to Rs 106. Jaiprakash Associates and Larsen & Toubro increased over 4.5% each to Rs 212 and Rs 1,477, respectively.
Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel and HDFC added over 3% each to Rs 258, Rs 451 and Rs 2,321, respectively.
DLF, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, HDFC Bank, Reliance Communications, ICICI Bank, Reliance Infrastruture and Maruti were up 2-3% each.
...AND THE SHAKERS
Infosys, Grasim Industries, TCS and Sun Pharma were the marginal losers today, down around 0.5% each.
Garments maker Provogue India to buy back shares worth Rs. 50 crore at Rs.100 a piece
Garments maker Provogue India has announced that it will buy back shares worth Rs. 50 crore from its shareholders through open market route.
"The directors have approved to repurchase 50 lakh shares at Rs. 100 a piece, aggregating to Rs 50 crore," Provogue India said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.
The buy-back is subject to necessary regulatory approvals, the filing added.
"The directors have approved to repurchase 50 lakh shares at Rs. 100 a piece, aggregating to Rs 50 crore," Provogue India said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.
The buy-back is subject to necessary regulatory approvals, the filing added.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Riding the bull charge
The recovery in the markets has lead to a slew of new fund offers. Should you invest?
The market turnaround from March 2009 lows on the back of a stable government, improvement in macroeconomic indicators as well as better-than-expected corporate earnings has set the mutual fund cash registers ringing again. Inflows into mutual funds for the month of July were up 24 per cent over the previous month, helping the total AUM exceed Rs 7 lakh crore for the first time in Indian mutual fund history.
While part of it is the money that was withdrawn on account of advance tax payments in June, the incremental addition was largely on account of the upward movement of the markets. Aided by FII inflows in July which grew by more than 3.5 times over June, the Nifty grew by 8 per cent in the same period. The upward movement in the market meant a jump in net inflows into equity funds in July to Rs 4,200 crore which accounts for nearly half of the equity inflows for the 2009 calendar year, estimates rating agency Crisil.
Fund managers say that the risk aversion which had gripped the markets since the last quarter of 2008 seems to have receded with improvements in economic indicators in India as well as in developed markets. While recovery make take two more quarters, fund houses have sensed the uptrend and are piling on new fund offers (NFOs). However, financial advisors suggest that due diligence be done before investment decisions are made. For one, they are advising clients to invest in NFOs falling under new norms which does away with entry loads.
The market turnaround from March 2009 lows on the back of a stable government, improvement in macroeconomic indicators as well as better-than-expected corporate earnings has set the mutual fund cash registers ringing again. Inflows into mutual funds for the month of July were up 24 per cent over the previous month, helping the total AUM exceed Rs 7 lakh crore for the first time in Indian mutual fund history.
While part of it is the money that was withdrawn on account of advance tax payments in June, the incremental addition was largely on account of the upward movement of the markets. Aided by FII inflows in July which grew by more than 3.5 times over June, the Nifty grew by 8 per cent in the same period. The upward movement in the market meant a jump in net inflows into equity funds in July to Rs 4,200 crore which accounts for nearly half of the equity inflows for the 2009 calendar year, estimates rating agency Crisil.
Fund managers say that the risk aversion which had gripped the markets since the last quarter of 2008 seems to have receded with improvements in economic indicators in India as well as in developed markets. While recovery make take two more quarters, fund houses have sensed the uptrend and are piling on new fund offers (NFOs). However, financial advisors suggest that due diligence be done before investment decisions are made. For one, they are advising clients to invest in NFOs falling under new norms which does away with entry loads.
Japan's economy rebounds in 2Q on export growth
Japan's economy breaks free of recession in 2Q on export rebound, grows at 3.7 percent pace
Japan's economy broke free of recession in the second quarter, the government said today, expanding 3.7 percent at an annual pace on a strong rebound in exports and joining Germany, France and other economies in recovering from the global financial crisis.
The recovery in the April-June quarter was driven by robust demand for exports such as video recorders and other electronics goods, said Kingo Toyoda of the Cabinet Office. Shipments to China and other emerging markets were particularly strong. Exports grew 6.3 percent from the previous quarter, the highest growth since the second quarter of 2002.
Government stimulus measures have also helped, such as cash handouts and incentives to buy ecological products -- although economists warned that the impact of such measures may peter out.
Despite the increase in exports, economists said the nascent recovery could quickly run out of steam because domestic demand remains weak. Salaries are falling and the unemployment rate has risen to a six-year high of 5.4 percent as companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. have cut thousands of jobs.
During the quarter through June 30, compensation for employees dipped 1.7 percent, the data showed, while consumer spending edged up a tepid 0.8 percent.
"When you look at the numbers, the contrast between external demand and internal demand is as clear as night and day," said Hiroshi Watanabe, economist with Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. "With payments falling, it's really hard to expect individual spending to hold up."
The rebound in the world's second-largest economy came after a steep, yearlong contraction in gross domestic product, including a worst-ever drop in the final quarter of 2008, when the economy shrank at a 13.1 percent pace.
The news from Japan comes amid signs that the global economy may be recovering from its slump. Last week, France and Germany, Europe's two biggest economies, said they resumed growing in the second quarter, while Hong Kong also said it expanded after a yearlong recession.
Japanese stocks fell, though, on concerns about weak U.S. consumer sentiment that could mean bad news for Japan's export-driven economy. The Nikkei 225 was down 2.2 percent at 10,360.25 by midday today.
Economy and fiscal policy minister Yoshimasa Hayashi warned that "risk factors" remain, including high unemployment and sluggish production.
"Production is still at a low level, and worries remain that employment conditions will worsen. So we must watch the downside risks," he said on nationally televised news.
Private capital investment slid 4.3 percent from the previous quarter, while housing investment plunged 9.5 percent, the government said.
Compared to the previous quarter, Japan's GDP expanded 0.9 percent in April-June. If that rate were maintained for a full year, the economy would grow 3.7 percent.
That was better than the 3.0 percent rate projected by the Economic Planning Association, a government-affiliated group of economists.
Also today, the government said in revised data that the economy had contracted 3.2 percent in the fiscal year through March 31, following 1.8 percent growth in the previous fiscal year, ending March 2008.
Japan's economy broke free of recession in the second quarter, the government said today, expanding 3.7 percent at an annual pace on a strong rebound in exports and joining Germany, France and other economies in recovering from the global financial crisis.
The recovery in the April-June quarter was driven by robust demand for exports such as video recorders and other electronics goods, said Kingo Toyoda of the Cabinet Office. Shipments to China and other emerging markets were particularly strong. Exports grew 6.3 percent from the previous quarter, the highest growth since the second quarter of 2002.
Government stimulus measures have also helped, such as cash handouts and incentives to buy ecological products -- although economists warned that the impact of such measures may peter out.
Despite the increase in exports, economists said the nascent recovery could quickly run out of steam because domestic demand remains weak. Salaries are falling and the unemployment rate has risen to a six-year high of 5.4 percent as companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. have cut thousands of jobs.
During the quarter through June 30, compensation for employees dipped 1.7 percent, the data showed, while consumer spending edged up a tepid 0.8 percent.
"When you look at the numbers, the contrast between external demand and internal demand is as clear as night and day," said Hiroshi Watanabe, economist with Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. "With payments falling, it's really hard to expect individual spending to hold up."
The rebound in the world's second-largest economy came after a steep, yearlong contraction in gross domestic product, including a worst-ever drop in the final quarter of 2008, when the economy shrank at a 13.1 percent pace.
The news from Japan comes amid signs that the global economy may be recovering from its slump. Last week, France and Germany, Europe's two biggest economies, said they resumed growing in the second quarter, while Hong Kong also said it expanded after a yearlong recession.
Japanese stocks fell, though, on concerns about weak U.S. consumer sentiment that could mean bad news for Japan's export-driven economy. The Nikkei 225 was down 2.2 percent at 10,360.25 by midday today.
Economy and fiscal policy minister Yoshimasa Hayashi warned that "risk factors" remain, including high unemployment and sluggish production.
"Production is still at a low level, and worries remain that employment conditions will worsen. So we must watch the downside risks," he said on nationally televised news.
Private capital investment slid 4.3 percent from the previous quarter, while housing investment plunged 9.5 percent, the government said.
Compared to the previous quarter, Japan's GDP expanded 0.9 percent in April-June. If that rate were maintained for a full year, the economy would grow 3.7 percent.
That was better than the 3.0 percent rate projected by the Economic Planning Association, a government-affiliated group of economists.
Also today, the government said in revised data that the economy had contracted 3.2 percent in the fiscal year through March 31, following 1.8 percent growth in the previous fiscal year, ending March 2008.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
India Inc resumes hiring drive amid recovery signals
In a major relief for jobseekers, India Inc's hiring activities are picking up once again as economic conditions are looking up considerably, experts say.
Most of the Indian companies which had frozen hiring due to the downturn have started to look at fresh recruitments now with indications of an economic recovery becoming visible across the world, according to HR experts.
"Hiring trends are picking up with companies opening up again for fresh recruitments... the days of downturn seem to be over and an upswing has begun.
"The resume posting activity is picking up again as people are testing the waters for changing their jobs," International Management Institute (IMI) Director C S Venkata Ratnam told PTI.
Global consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers Executive Director R Sankar said the hiring conditions were turning for the better even as a long way remains for companies to regain their previous year's levels.
"The job scene has improved but is still to reach the levels of euphoria we were accustomed to in earlier years. We don't see a 'flurry of resumes' but cherry picking of key talent continues to happen," Sankar said.
"Much would depend on the pace of the economic recovery. The green shots are springing up but the poor monsoon is cause for concern," he added.
Venkata Ratnam also said that retail and realty sectors are the ones to pick up strongly in the coming months, while IT sector will continue to suffer as it is not driven by domestic demand.
"In any event, sectors such as FMCG, pharma, telecoms etc which have been relatively less affected by the slowdown will continue to hire, albeit cautiously," Sankar pointed out.
In June, corporate India's hiring activity had surged significantly with recruitment in banking and financial services sector increasing 22 per cent in the month, according to a survey by a job portal.
"The economy has pulled out of the stagnancy in hiring. Although, there is an uptrend in hiring, this may be only indicative of replacement hiring," Info Edge National Head - Marketing and Communications Sumeet Singh said.
The job trends in Indian companies' is in line with their global peers and a recent survey by Deloitte revealed HR executives globally now have new concerns about building up of a 'resume tsunami' which may be ready to hit once the economy turns and employees begin to consider new opportunities.
"Once recovery begins to take hold, business executives and talent leaders can expect a 'resume tsunami' as voluntary turnover rises with leaders and workers with critical skills seeking new opportunities," Deloitte LLP Consulting Principal (Human Capital) Jeff Schwartz said.
Most of the Indian companies which had frozen hiring due to the downturn have started to look at fresh recruitments now with indications of an economic recovery becoming visible across the world, according to HR experts.
"Hiring trends are picking up with companies opening up again for fresh recruitments... the days of downturn seem to be over and an upswing has begun.
"The resume posting activity is picking up again as people are testing the waters for changing their jobs," International Management Institute (IMI) Director C S Venkata Ratnam told PTI.
Global consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers Executive Director R Sankar said the hiring conditions were turning for the better even as a long way remains for companies to regain their previous year's levels.
"The job scene has improved but is still to reach the levels of euphoria we were accustomed to in earlier years. We don't see a 'flurry of resumes' but cherry picking of key talent continues to happen," Sankar said.
"Much would depend on the pace of the economic recovery. The green shots are springing up but the poor monsoon is cause for concern," he added.
Venkata Ratnam also said that retail and realty sectors are the ones to pick up strongly in the coming months, while IT sector will continue to suffer as it is not driven by domestic demand.
"In any event, sectors such as FMCG, pharma, telecoms etc which have been relatively less affected by the slowdown will continue to hire, albeit cautiously," Sankar pointed out.
In June, corporate India's hiring activity had surged significantly with recruitment in banking and financial services sector increasing 22 per cent in the month, according to a survey by a job portal.
"The economy has pulled out of the stagnancy in hiring. Although, there is an uptrend in hiring, this may be only indicative of replacement hiring," Info Edge National Head - Marketing and Communications Sumeet Singh said.
The job trends in Indian companies' is in line with their global peers and a recent survey by Deloitte revealed HR executives globally now have new concerns about building up of a 'resume tsunami' which may be ready to hit once the economy turns and employees begin to consider new opportunities.
"Once recovery begins to take hold, business executives and talent leaders can expect a 'resume tsunami' as voluntary turnover rises with leaders and workers with critical skills seeking new opportunities," Deloitte LLP Consulting Principal (Human Capital) Jeff Schwartz said.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Fresh rally with gap-up opening on the cards
Trading in the Nifty futures and call options suggests that the futures & options traders covered most of their short positions on Friday around the 4,500 level.
The Bloomberg data suggest that almost 60 per cent of the buy-side volumes changed hands around 4,480-4,520 levels. The August futures were traded at a discount of 14 points to the spot during the intraday trade, but closed almost at par with the spot and added an open interest of 704,300 shares.
The put buyers were seen booking profits at the 4,600 and 4,700 strikes as open interest in these puts declined by 733,100 shares, mostly through sell orders. Traders were seen writing the 4,400 and 4,500 puts on expectation of the Nifty getting a strong support at the 4,500 level.
While the Nifty corrected from the day’s high of 4,591 to 4,463, surprisingly the options traders were seen buying 4,700-4,800 strike calls. This meant that we might witness the end of the short-term correction and a fresh rally might emerge on Monday.
The S&P CNX Nifty closed below the 4,500 level on Friday as investors booked profits on concern over below-normal monsoon. The Friday close of 4,481 is also the key trend reversal level. The daily RSI is trading near the mean reversal level of 50, pointing to the significance of support at these levels.
The correction, however, has helped indices move away from the overbought zone to neutral zone. Technically, the Nifty could get support around the 4,400 level, which is also a 50 per cent retracement level of fall between January 8, 2008 and October 27, 2008.
The US and European markets closed in the green, which indicated a gap-up opening in our markets on Monday.
The F&O traders booked profit in several mid-cap stocks such as Ispat Industries, IFCI, GVK Power, Balrampur Chini, Nagarjuna Fertilisers, GMR Infra and IVRCL. A fresh OI build-up of over 500,000 shares each was seen in ITC, Idea Cellular, IDBI Bank, Reliance Petroleum and Suzlon Energy.
The Bloomberg data suggest that almost 60 per cent of the buy-side volumes changed hands around 4,480-4,520 levels. The August futures were traded at a discount of 14 points to the spot during the intraday trade, but closed almost at par with the spot and added an open interest of 704,300 shares.
The put buyers were seen booking profits at the 4,600 and 4,700 strikes as open interest in these puts declined by 733,100 shares, mostly through sell orders. Traders were seen writing the 4,400 and 4,500 puts on expectation of the Nifty getting a strong support at the 4,500 level.
While the Nifty corrected from the day’s high of 4,591 to 4,463, surprisingly the options traders were seen buying 4,700-4,800 strike calls. This meant that we might witness the end of the short-term correction and a fresh rally might emerge on Monday.
The S&P CNX Nifty closed below the 4,500 level on Friday as investors booked profits on concern over below-normal monsoon. The Friday close of 4,481 is also the key trend reversal level. The daily RSI is trading near the mean reversal level of 50, pointing to the significance of support at these levels.
The correction, however, has helped indices move away from the overbought zone to neutral zone. Technically, the Nifty could get support around the 4,400 level, which is also a 50 per cent retracement level of fall between January 8, 2008 and October 27, 2008.
The US and European markets closed in the green, which indicated a gap-up opening in our markets on Monday.
The F&O traders booked profit in several mid-cap stocks such as Ispat Industries, IFCI, GVK Power, Balrampur Chini, Nagarjuna Fertilisers, GMR Infra and IVRCL. A fresh OI build-up of over 500,000 shares each was seen in ITC, Idea Cellular, IDBI Bank, Reliance Petroleum and Suzlon Energy.
IDBI Bank aims to enhance base in SME, retail sectors
IDBI Bank has taken an initiative to strengthen its base in the mid-corporate, SME and retail sectors without compromising its pre-eminent position in the corporate banking business.
"The bank has adopted a strategy of developing a larger client base in the mid-corporate, SME and retail sectors, while nurturing the deep relationships that already exist in the large corporate sector," IDBI Bank Chairman and Managing Director Yogesh Agarwal was quoted as saying in the annual report.
Agarwal said that the strategy aimed at developing more retail base in both assets and liabilities leading to a more diversified balance sheet as well as improvement and sustainability in the net interest income.
"The strategy also focuses on leveraging the bank's experience in project/infrastructure financing to become a larger player in investment banking, yielding higher fee-based income," he said.
In order to boost its non-fund based income, the bank, he said, has adopted aggressive strategies for gaining higher market share in transaction banking activities.
IDBI Bank has already developed a special business model to serve the SMEs, which is considered to be the growth engine of the bank.
"Pursuant to formation of a dedicated vertical for SME customers, the bank has plans to set up 40 City SME Centres (CMCs) out of which 15 have already been set up," Agarwal said.
IDBI Bank installed 149 ATMs during the last fiscal, taking the number to 900 as on March 31, 2009.
"The momentum (of opening ATMs) would continue during the current financial year," Agarwal said.
IDBI had a total business of Rs 2,15,829 crore as on March 31, 2009, comprising Rs 1,12,401 crore of deposits and Rs 1,03,428 crore of advances.
"The bank has adopted a strategy of developing a larger client base in the mid-corporate, SME and retail sectors, while nurturing the deep relationships that already exist in the large corporate sector," IDBI Bank Chairman and Managing Director Yogesh Agarwal was quoted as saying in the annual report.
Agarwal said that the strategy aimed at developing more retail base in both assets and liabilities leading to a more diversified balance sheet as well as improvement and sustainability in the net interest income.
"The strategy also focuses on leveraging the bank's experience in project/infrastructure financing to become a larger player in investment banking, yielding higher fee-based income," he said.
In order to boost its non-fund based income, the bank, he said, has adopted aggressive strategies for gaining higher market share in transaction banking activities.
IDBI Bank has already developed a special business model to serve the SMEs, which is considered to be the growth engine of the bank.
"Pursuant to formation of a dedicated vertical for SME customers, the bank has plans to set up 40 City SME Centres (CMCs) out of which 15 have already been set up," Agarwal said.
IDBI Bank installed 149 ATMs during the last fiscal, taking the number to 900 as on March 31, 2009.
"The momentum (of opening ATMs) would continue during the current financial year," Agarwal said.
IDBI had a total business of Rs 2,15,829 crore as on March 31, 2009, comprising Rs 1,12,401 crore of deposits and Rs 1,03,428 crore of advances.
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Surprisingly strong jobs data signal turning point
It's the clearest sign yet the US recession is finally ending: US employers laid off far fewer workers in July, the jobless rate dipped for the first time in 15 months and workers' hours and pay edged upward.
Those are the kind of figures that could give Americans the psychological boost necessary for recovery to take root after the worst recession since World War II.
A net total of 247,000 jobs were lost last month, the fewest in a year and a drastic improvement from the 443,000 that vanished in June.
The Labor Department's report Friday showed that the unemployment rate dropped a notch to 9.4 percent in July, from 9.5 percent the previous month. Together with slight increases in the average workweek and wages, the new figures suggested the economy is in a transition from recession to recovery.
"The worst may be behind us," President Barack Obama declared. "Today, we're pointed in the right direction."
Still, the job market remains shaky. A quarter-million lost jobs are a far cry from the employment growth needed to put the national economy on solid footing.
When the economy is healthy, employers need to add a net total of around 125,000 jobs a month just to keep the unemployment rate stable. And to push the jobless rate down to a more normal 5 percent range, it would take much stronger growth -- at least 200,000 new jobs a month. Economists say it might take until 2013 to drive down the unemployment rate to 5 percent.
Yet the improvements in July could give some businesses the confidence to hire again -- or at least not to lay off more workers. And consumers, less anxious about losing jobs, could respond by spending more freely.
"If people and companies think the worst is behind them -- and it probably is -- their confidence will be restored," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. "That confidence can feed on itself."
On Wall Street, the report propelled stocks higher. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 114 points, and other stock averages also gained.
Analysts had been forecasting bleaker employment figures: more job losses and an increase in the unemployment rate to 9.6 percent.
The White House said the president still expects the rate to hit 10 percent this year. So do many economists and the Federal Reserve.
Analysts say companies will keep cutting jobs probably through the rest of this year, though the pace of layoffs should continue to taper off. The beginnings of recovery could actually push the unemployment rate higher, since far more people would be energized to look for work again.
In fact, the main reason the unemployment rate declined last month was not an inspiring one: Hundreds of thousands of people, some discouraged by their failed job searches, left the labor force. The labor force includes only those who are either employed or are looking for work.
If laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included the unemployment rate would have been 16.3 percent in July. All told, 14.5 million were out of work in July.
Job-seekers are finding it harder to get work because there are so few openings. A record 4.97 million people had been unemployed six months or longer in July. And the average length of unemployment grew to 25.1 weeks, also a record.
For those with jobs, the latest report was more heartening. With companies feeling a bit better about the economy's prospects and their own, employees got to work more hours and saw their paychecks grow.
The average work week rose to 33.1 hours, after having fallen to 33 hours in June, the lowest in records dating to 1964. That increase could signal new hiring later on because companies typically ask their existing staff to work longer hours before they decide to hire more people.
And employers bumped up wages. Average hourly earnings rose to $18.56 in July from $18.53 in June. Average weekly earnings rose to $614.34.
Those gains raised hopes that consumers, whose spending accounts for the single largest slice of economic activity, will spend more in the months ahead. In a cautionary note, the Federal Reserve reported Friday that consumers paid down credit cards and reduced other debt in June for the fifth straight month. For months, rising unemployment, declining home values and reduced stock portfolios have led Americans to spend less.
Those are the kind of figures that could give Americans the psychological boost necessary for recovery to take root after the worst recession since World War II.
A net total of 247,000 jobs were lost last month, the fewest in a year and a drastic improvement from the 443,000 that vanished in June.
The Labor Department's report Friday showed that the unemployment rate dropped a notch to 9.4 percent in July, from 9.5 percent the previous month. Together with slight increases in the average workweek and wages, the new figures suggested the economy is in a transition from recession to recovery.
"The worst may be behind us," President Barack Obama declared. "Today, we're pointed in the right direction."
Still, the job market remains shaky. A quarter-million lost jobs are a far cry from the employment growth needed to put the national economy on solid footing.
When the economy is healthy, employers need to add a net total of around 125,000 jobs a month just to keep the unemployment rate stable. And to push the jobless rate down to a more normal 5 percent range, it would take much stronger growth -- at least 200,000 new jobs a month. Economists say it might take until 2013 to drive down the unemployment rate to 5 percent.
Yet the improvements in July could give some businesses the confidence to hire again -- or at least not to lay off more workers. And consumers, less anxious about losing jobs, could respond by spending more freely.
"If people and companies think the worst is behind them -- and it probably is -- their confidence will be restored," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. "That confidence can feed on itself."
On Wall Street, the report propelled stocks higher. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 114 points, and other stock averages also gained.
Analysts had been forecasting bleaker employment figures: more job losses and an increase in the unemployment rate to 9.6 percent.
The White House said the president still expects the rate to hit 10 percent this year. So do many economists and the Federal Reserve.
Analysts say companies will keep cutting jobs probably through the rest of this year, though the pace of layoffs should continue to taper off. The beginnings of recovery could actually push the unemployment rate higher, since far more people would be energized to look for work again.
In fact, the main reason the unemployment rate declined last month was not an inspiring one: Hundreds of thousands of people, some discouraged by their failed job searches, left the labor force. The labor force includes only those who are either employed or are looking for work.
If laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included the unemployment rate would have been 16.3 percent in July. All told, 14.5 million were out of work in July.
Job-seekers are finding it harder to get work because there are so few openings. A record 4.97 million people had been unemployed six months or longer in July. And the average length of unemployment grew to 25.1 weeks, also a record.
For those with jobs, the latest report was more heartening. With companies feeling a bit better about the economy's prospects and their own, employees got to work more hours and saw their paychecks grow.
The average work week rose to 33.1 hours, after having fallen to 33 hours in June, the lowest in records dating to 1964. That increase could signal new hiring later on because companies typically ask their existing staff to work longer hours before they decide to hire more people.
And employers bumped up wages. Average hourly earnings rose to $18.56 in July from $18.53 in June. Average weekly earnings rose to $614.34.
Those gains raised hopes that consumers, whose spending accounts for the single largest slice of economic activity, will spend more in the months ahead. In a cautionary note, the Federal Reserve reported Friday that consumers paid down credit cards and reduced other debt in June for the fifth straight month. For months, rising unemployment, declining home values and reduced stock portfolios have led Americans to spend less.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
S&P Breaks 1,000 for First Time In '09
The US stock markets are extending their summer rally as August brings more upbeat economic data. Positive reports on manufacturing, housing and banking sent US stocks sharply higher on Monday, hurling the Standard & Poor's 500 index past 1,000 for the first time since early November. The Dow also crossed the 9,200 mark for the first time since late October and the Nasdaq crossed 2,000 for the first time this year.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Sensex at 2009 high, rallies 282pts
The Sensex on Friday recorded a fresh 2009 high on the back of strong earnings, positive global cues and renewed buying interest at the start of the August derivatives series.
The BSE index yesterday opened with a positive gap of 61 points at 15,449. The index surged thereafter to the calendar year's high of 15,733 - up 345 points. Towards the end of the day, the index slipped for a brief while but managed to recover sharply.
The Sensex finally ended the day with a gain of 282 points (2%) at 15,670.
The BSE Oil & Gas and FMCG indices gained 3% each to 2,738 and 9,480, respectively.
The NSE Nifty, meanwhile, ended at 4,636, up 65 points. Ealier in the day the index touched a high of 4,670 - up 99 points.
US markets had closed with big gains on Thursday (the Dow closed slightly higher on Friday also). Asian markets on Friday had closed at their 11-month high.
This has taken the Sensex up 291 points (2%) this week. The Nifty has added 68 points (1.5%) at the same time.
The market breadth today was positive. Out of 2,801 stocks traded, 1,401 advanced while 1,299 declined.
INDEX MOVERS...
Hindalco and Tata Motors have surged 6.5% each to Rs 100 and Rs 422, respectively. ONGC has rallied 6% to Rs 1,165.
SBI has gained 5% at Rs 1,814. Hindustan Unilever added 3% to Rs 291.
Reliance, ITC, Sterlite moved up 3% each. HDFC Bank, HDFC, Infosys, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, Reliance Infrastructure and BHEL also moved up 1-3% each.
Among the Nifty stocks, Nalco surged 5% to Rs 306. Ambuja Cements and Idea Cellular added 4% each to Rs 109 and Rs 79, respectively.
ABB, Cairn India and Siemens also moved up.
...AND THE SHAKERS
Bharti Airtel traded in red through teh day and finally ended at Rs 411, down 3%. Reliance Communications and Hero Honda dropped 2% each to Rs 276 and Rs 1,606, respectively.
DLF also slipped 1% to Rs 396.
In Nifty, Jindal Steel, BPCL, HCL Technologies, Cipla and PowerGrid Corporation dropped 1-3% each.
VALUE & VOLUME TOPPERS...
Reliance topped the combined value chart with a turnover of Rs 875.43 crore, followed SBI (Rs 864.31 crore), DLF (Rs 776.88 crore), Tata Steel (Rs 752.48 crore) and Suzlon (Rs 660.45 crore).
The combined volume chart was led by Unitech with trades of 81.45 million shares, followed by Suzlon (65.09 million), Mahindra Satyam (52.11 million), Ispat Industries (50.2 million) and IFCI (42.47 million).
The BSE index yesterday opened with a positive gap of 61 points at 15,449. The index surged thereafter to the calendar year's high of 15,733 - up 345 points. Towards the end of the day, the index slipped for a brief while but managed to recover sharply.
The Sensex finally ended the day with a gain of 282 points (2%) at 15,670.
The BSE Oil & Gas and FMCG indices gained 3% each to 2,738 and 9,480, respectively.
The NSE Nifty, meanwhile, ended at 4,636, up 65 points. Ealier in the day the index touched a high of 4,670 - up 99 points.
US markets had closed with big gains on Thursday (the Dow closed slightly higher on Friday also). Asian markets on Friday had closed at their 11-month high.
This has taken the Sensex up 291 points (2%) this week. The Nifty has added 68 points (1.5%) at the same time.
The market breadth today was positive. Out of 2,801 stocks traded, 1,401 advanced while 1,299 declined.
INDEX MOVERS...
Hindalco and Tata Motors have surged 6.5% each to Rs 100 and Rs 422, respectively. ONGC has rallied 6% to Rs 1,165.
SBI has gained 5% at Rs 1,814. Hindustan Unilever added 3% to Rs 291.
Reliance, ITC, Sterlite moved up 3% each. HDFC Bank, HDFC, Infosys, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, Reliance Infrastructure and BHEL also moved up 1-3% each.
Among the Nifty stocks, Nalco surged 5% to Rs 306. Ambuja Cements and Idea Cellular added 4% each to Rs 109 and Rs 79, respectively.
ABB, Cairn India and Siemens also moved up.
...AND THE SHAKERS
Bharti Airtel traded in red through teh day and finally ended at Rs 411, down 3%. Reliance Communications and Hero Honda dropped 2% each to Rs 276 and Rs 1,606, respectively.
DLF also slipped 1% to Rs 396.
In Nifty, Jindal Steel, BPCL, HCL Technologies, Cipla and PowerGrid Corporation dropped 1-3% each.
VALUE & VOLUME TOPPERS...
Reliance topped the combined value chart with a turnover of Rs 875.43 crore, followed SBI (Rs 864.31 crore), DLF (Rs 776.88 crore), Tata Steel (Rs 752.48 crore) and Suzlon (Rs 660.45 crore).
The combined volume chart was led by Unitech with trades of 81.45 million shares, followed by Suzlon (65.09 million), Mahindra Satyam (52.11 million), Ispat Industries (50.2 million) and IFCI (42.47 million).
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