AVOIDING A U.S. RECESSION...

As economists ponder whether a U.S. recession is inevitable, the Wall Street Journal has taken a look at some strong arguments that the U.S. economy might avoid such a painful downturn, noting that in the latest WSJ.com survey of economists and forecasters on average put the chance of a recession at 38%.

For one thing, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has already cut its main short-term interest-rate target by a full percentage point since August and is expected to further ease rates through the middle of next year, recessions typically don't begin when interest rates are as low as they are now.

Another factor is that global economic growth is raising demand for U.S. goods, offsetting softer domestic consumption. Emerging markets, which buy more than half of U.S. exports, continue to grow, some at an accelerating pace, even as industrialized economies cool. In addition, the job market is signaling a modest slowdown in hiring but not a sharp increase in layoffs. In fact, growth in service jobs remains robust, and most sectors outside housing and finance remain afloat.